Yes, I am lacking in the remote idea of a creative title these days. Yes, I realize I should be better than what I am in that department. However, I would be smitten if I didn't state that this title is pretty self explanatory. I finally (okay the area only has been operable since September, but given I went in mid-November, it seemed like years) got to go to the new Fiserv Forum. Most will remember this as the new Bucks arena in Milwaukee. For myself, it's the new ray of hope that kept the Bucks from going to Seattle (Seriously NBA, just give that city a stupid expansion team and quit the stupid relocation idea for every team.) I was on board with a new arena right from the off and was so glad that they got the arena. Below is what I think of the arena itself, the Bucks product, the concessions, and a feature of the arena district.
The arena from the outside seems like a great concept. Much ado about the roof about this arena was made but no one could tell it from the outside. From the outside, you look at a brightly lit arena with a very cool exterior. As you get closer to it, you see a masterwork in construction. The inside however, it can be a bit confusing to start if you haven't been there. You have to go different places to get to the upper level but it is easy as time goes on. The arena itself, it's much wider than the old Bradley Center. This is such a better idea because I didn't have to act small to get through a line anywhere (and yes that'll be a complaint I have for Lambeau Field.) I am glad for the wide concourses. So this is a massive plus to me. Now what do I think of the food/drinks?
The food is massively so much better than anything the Bradley Center had to offer. I personally had chicken, fries, ice cream and a hamburger through the game and it is so much better than anything the Bradley Center had. Yes it may have been with a slightly higher price but I am willing to pay for that with a better product, which is evident with the Fiserv Forum food. The drinks vary with what you want, but it is typically Coke products and it has a vast array of different alcoholic stands for those drinks. However, do expect regular arena prices for any of that. Now was about the product on the court itself?
The Bucks played Chicago on this Friday night, which was nationally televised by ESPN. The Bucks started very poorly, with Chicago getting as much as a 22-point lead in the first half. However, the Bucks in the second half turned the script on the Bulls and ended up winning by 20 plus points. The Bucks starting in the Fiserv Forum is made to happen as this is a place that the Bucks want to bring basketball back to high marks in the city of Milwaukee and to where they can compete for a championship. It has been a good year thus far to start for Milwaukee and they intend to keep it going for years to come. But the arena comes with one more separate twist, and that is outside.
The arena district is a bunch of different stores, restaurants and bars along with corporate space to do this with the arena around. This is similar to what Green Bay has going on, what St. Louis did with the Cardinals and what others are now doing around the nation. The Bucks came with the idea, which has stuck with the public and will look amazing when it is full with businesses and people. I think it is a fantastic idea for the people of Milwaukee to have things all year round and when there is a concert, Bucks game, Marquette game or different things going on to be able to see all around the arena and the district around this. I feel this is a very important part to the growth of Fiserv Forum going forward.
All in all, the Bucks and the city of Milwaukee has struck gold with Fiserv Forum. This will be a huge boom for the Bucks on the court and the fans because of the amount of amenities and the ability to be part of the process for the Bucks, or a concert or different things. It's a huge part to the downtown area because of the district that will be terrific when it is full. I feel Milwaukee and the Bucks should feel amazing going forward with this new arena and should be very glad that this got done.
Wednesday, December 5, 2018
Wednesday, November 14, 2018
Election 2018: The Aftermath
Amidst the continuing 9 House of Representative races still unbeknownst of a call for either a Democrat or Republican, we can essentially say the Democrats will win the House of Representatives and the Republicans the Senate unless all sorts of post-election chaos happened i.e.: A post-apocalyptic world. So how do we summarize one of the more important mid-term elections in recent history? Well take a gander with me here my friends and we'll go through it step by step!
1. A chance lost or a lost chance?- This might be Senate Democrats question in ways as they lost three Senate seats on Election Night in the states of Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota. They fielded candidates that won those seats in 2012, only for one reason or another to find their luck ran dry in this election. That is most noted with Claire McAskill from Missouri. In 2006, she eked out a win over Jim Talent. In 2012, she benefited from Todd Akin being.. well.. dumb. This time, Josh Hawley didn't have a significant drop-off of Republicans and he wasn't completely controversial and it paid off beating McAskill. Joe Donnelly was succumbed to the political nature of Indiana, same with Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota. That, along with likely Bill Nelson's defeat in Florida, will have Democrats rue this mid-term on the Senate side for a while.
2. A door opened or an already opened door?- On the flip side however of that, the Democrats took down Dean Heller in Nevada and won a senate seat in Arizona. That is significant because even if Florida goes to Republican Rick Scott and the Mississippi run-off goes to the Republican as well, the worst the Democrats will be is 53-47 down going to the 2020 elections. With likely only one or two embattled Democrats on the ticket in 2020, and one is Doug Jones from Alabama, the stage is set to try to get a +5 advantage of the likely 7-8 battleground seats in the Senate in 2020. The Republicans had the turf advantage this go round. However, it's the Democrats who own the field possession two years from now, and there are many embattled Republicans on the docket. If the Democrats can field a strong field of Senators for 2020, this could change hands very quickly in four years.
3. Great Escapes- So this election season saw some impressive escapes. Assuming Rick Scott pulls it out over Bill Nelson, he would have escaped a massively narrowing margin that was favoring Nelson towards the end. Ditto Bruce Poliquin in Maine's Second House District, who has been deadlocked with Jared Golden most of that campaign. Same can also be said for Rob Woodall if he holds the Seventh District in Georgia. But none may compare to Democrat Jon Tester in Montana who was losing through the night to Matt Rosendale only to pull it out on Wednesday afternoon in an escape to stay in the Senate for six more years.
4. Voting Rights- Okay I have to lay a gavel hammer down here. I am so sick of the idea that a nation has to have a government try to restrict voting rights. It's infuriating, and in all honesty it should be unconstitutional every single second of every day of the week. I am also sick of seeing people wait 2-6 hours in line. I applaud judges for the ability to tell people to vote and stay in line, but this shouldn't have to go like this in a country as advanced as the United States. This is on states as well. It's not just the federal government. The states need to be accountable to make sure polling places are up to date, are ADA compliant, and if not then to get them to be by means possible. Closing polling places does nothing to help the fabric of the institutional right to vote in this country. It's actually horrid that this conversation has to be put in, but damnit I am tired of people still in 2018 fighting for their exercised right to vote in this country. End the stupid discussion, and let those eligible to vote then vote and stop with the blasphemous garbage to try to prevent them from doing so.
5. The Presidential Field?- Okay, okay this was going to be the overarching story but I seriously hate posting this because I was more excited about what actually happened on Election Night and the days that have followed. Obviously, the GOP person is likely Trump, unless there is a massive overreach of the power of the GOP to get him out. The tricky scenario is who is the Democrats leader? Is it Beto O'Rourke? Andrew Gillum? Joe Biden? Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, or someone else? We have two years to figure this all out.
6. The House is a disaster for the Republicans- Okay, okay I am blasting Republicans it seems here, and I PROMISE it'll get better (maybe?) but this is honestly point forward. So the House was in Republican control, and in a fell swoop on Election Night, that was gone. There were surprises, like NY-11, OK-5 and SC-1. There were expected seats, like all in Pennsylvania, some in California, and Florida. However, of the toss-ups, no one expected nearly all the California toss-ups to go to the Democrats. No one also expected all but one of the toss-up VA seats to go to the Democrats. The rough range was likely 224-226 for the Democrats. They are going to surpass the 230 mark. How far over is still uncertain. But they still could take UT-04, NJ-3 (Tom McArthur's seat) and a couple more. If it weren't for likely a data entry error, GA-7 is possible to the Democrats as well. And that isn't saying for much on Chris Collins and Duncan Hunter, who are likely to go to prison for their legal issues. All of this.. is also during an age where there is extreme gerrymandering in many states. The Republicans held 33 governor seats prior to the 2018 midterms so they held a lot of the re-districting rights. Now.. the Republicans couldn't hold seats they likely could have won. And they suffered the ultimate defeat for it because now the Democrats can do a lot of work in a House they not only have a majority in, but likely lead by thirty seats.
7. What a night in Gubernatorial Races- First to the Republican side, they kept popular governors there, Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, Phil Scott in the Northeast. There likely won't be much that gets done in redistricting there as it'll be tough since all three of those states are widely Democratic anyway. However, that doesn't all do it for Republicans. Mike DeWine beat Richard Cordray in Ohio, beating a powerful Democrat that could have sent another major shockwave. Ron DeSantis appears to be willing to hold off Andrew Gillum in Florida, preventing a major shockwave again. And it appears Brian Kemp could hold off Stacey Abrams from a run-off election in December..
8. However.. that is about the extent of the Republicans success: The major successes of the night happened on the flip side of this for gubernatorial races. Starting up the coast in Maine, Janet Mills flipped that to Democrat. Ned Lamont held off a fierce Republican challenge to win Connecticut after very deeply unpopular Dannel Malloy left office. Toward the Midwest, it got bad for Republicans really, really quickly. J.B. Pritzker ran away with the Illinois race, an expected rout for the Democrats. Gretchen Whitmer won in Michigan, after a deeply unpopular Republican Rick Snyder was term-limited. Out west, New Mexico took Michelle Grisham to the Governor's Mansion in another flip. In Nevada, Steve Sisolak upset Adam Laxalt to retake the Democrats control in that Gubernatorial race. However, the two shockwaves happened in the Midwest. Laura Kelly beat Kris Kobach in Kansas and Tony Evers upset Scott Walker in Wisconsin. Kelly's win was significant due to the hostility of what Kobach represented. The Evers' upset represented how much more coordinated the Democrats have become in four years in the state.
9. Women bust records but so do LGBTQ+ candidates: Women are no longer just the backmarker in politics, and given how men have operated the White House the last couple of years and essentially Congress forever it might not be a bad idea for a massive change. Women have set high markers in the House this mid-term and by 2020 should set more markers in the Senate. The all-time highs can also be attributed to the state houses and senates across the nation. However, LGBTQ+ candidates on Election Night and afterward had a terrific night. Openly gay Democrat Jared Polis was elected governor of Colorado, openly gay Senator Tammy Baldwin was re-elected. However, openly gay Sharice Davids won a House race in Kansas of all places. Bisexual candidates Katie Hill and Kyrsten Sinema won their races in California and Arizona respectively. This also goes with different ethnic groups winning for the first times ever. Native Americans, Latinas and Somali-Americans will be introduced to Congress as House members for the first time, and oh yeah they are women too. Women won Gubernatorial races as well. The aforementioned Grisham, Whitmer, Kelly and Mills and Iowa Republican Kim Reynolds join the fray. Ditto with Kate Brown in Oregon, Kay Ivey in Alabama, and Kristi Noem in South Dakota. Like I said, if men cannot do the job, then women should be capable of doing a better job.
10. The Heartbreak stories: Without Election Night, there would be no Cinderella stories in politics (see really most of the above for that, plus some others I didn't mention) but then there wouldn't be the heartbreak stories that can evolve over a campaign. There are many but none bigger than Beto O'Rourke. The Texas Democrat who represented El Paso in the House of Representatives spent the better part of a year in every county, 254 to be exact, traveling to different people in the state. Some are more likely than others to vote for him. However, he was determined and fired up. In the second debate against Ted Cruz, he was fiercely aggressive to the point that the next day he apologized for that. When the votes were tallying up, he was in a dead heat a lot of the night against Cruz. But with about 80 percent of the vote in the state, it was announced that Cruz would win. It was a brutal reminder that sometimes these stories are buried.
If I missed anything, let me know! Before we know it, 2020 is around the corner and those damn political ads will be at it again!
1. A chance lost or a lost chance?- This might be Senate Democrats question in ways as they lost three Senate seats on Election Night in the states of Missouri, Indiana and North Dakota. They fielded candidates that won those seats in 2012, only for one reason or another to find their luck ran dry in this election. That is most noted with Claire McAskill from Missouri. In 2006, she eked out a win over Jim Talent. In 2012, she benefited from Todd Akin being.. well.. dumb. This time, Josh Hawley didn't have a significant drop-off of Republicans and he wasn't completely controversial and it paid off beating McAskill. Joe Donnelly was succumbed to the political nature of Indiana, same with Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota. That, along with likely Bill Nelson's defeat in Florida, will have Democrats rue this mid-term on the Senate side for a while.
2. A door opened or an already opened door?- On the flip side however of that, the Democrats took down Dean Heller in Nevada and won a senate seat in Arizona. That is significant because even if Florida goes to Republican Rick Scott and the Mississippi run-off goes to the Republican as well, the worst the Democrats will be is 53-47 down going to the 2020 elections. With likely only one or two embattled Democrats on the ticket in 2020, and one is Doug Jones from Alabama, the stage is set to try to get a +5 advantage of the likely 7-8 battleground seats in the Senate in 2020. The Republicans had the turf advantage this go round. However, it's the Democrats who own the field possession two years from now, and there are many embattled Republicans on the docket. If the Democrats can field a strong field of Senators for 2020, this could change hands very quickly in four years.
3. Great Escapes- So this election season saw some impressive escapes. Assuming Rick Scott pulls it out over Bill Nelson, he would have escaped a massively narrowing margin that was favoring Nelson towards the end. Ditto Bruce Poliquin in Maine's Second House District, who has been deadlocked with Jared Golden most of that campaign. Same can also be said for Rob Woodall if he holds the Seventh District in Georgia. But none may compare to Democrat Jon Tester in Montana who was losing through the night to Matt Rosendale only to pull it out on Wednesday afternoon in an escape to stay in the Senate for six more years.
4. Voting Rights- Okay I have to lay a gavel hammer down here. I am so sick of the idea that a nation has to have a government try to restrict voting rights. It's infuriating, and in all honesty it should be unconstitutional every single second of every day of the week. I am also sick of seeing people wait 2-6 hours in line. I applaud judges for the ability to tell people to vote and stay in line, but this shouldn't have to go like this in a country as advanced as the United States. This is on states as well. It's not just the federal government. The states need to be accountable to make sure polling places are up to date, are ADA compliant, and if not then to get them to be by means possible. Closing polling places does nothing to help the fabric of the institutional right to vote in this country. It's actually horrid that this conversation has to be put in, but damnit I am tired of people still in 2018 fighting for their exercised right to vote in this country. End the stupid discussion, and let those eligible to vote then vote and stop with the blasphemous garbage to try to prevent them from doing so.
5. The Presidential Field?- Okay, okay this was going to be the overarching story but I seriously hate posting this because I was more excited about what actually happened on Election Night and the days that have followed. Obviously, the GOP person is likely Trump, unless there is a massive overreach of the power of the GOP to get him out. The tricky scenario is who is the Democrats leader? Is it Beto O'Rourke? Andrew Gillum? Joe Biden? Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, or someone else? We have two years to figure this all out.
6. The House is a disaster for the Republicans- Okay, okay I am blasting Republicans it seems here, and I PROMISE it'll get better (maybe?) but this is honestly point forward. So the House was in Republican control, and in a fell swoop on Election Night, that was gone. There were surprises, like NY-11, OK-5 and SC-1. There were expected seats, like all in Pennsylvania, some in California, and Florida. However, of the toss-ups, no one expected nearly all the California toss-ups to go to the Democrats. No one also expected all but one of the toss-up VA seats to go to the Democrats. The rough range was likely 224-226 for the Democrats. They are going to surpass the 230 mark. How far over is still uncertain. But they still could take UT-04, NJ-3 (Tom McArthur's seat) and a couple more. If it weren't for likely a data entry error, GA-7 is possible to the Democrats as well. And that isn't saying for much on Chris Collins and Duncan Hunter, who are likely to go to prison for their legal issues. All of this.. is also during an age where there is extreme gerrymandering in many states. The Republicans held 33 governor seats prior to the 2018 midterms so they held a lot of the re-districting rights. Now.. the Republicans couldn't hold seats they likely could have won. And they suffered the ultimate defeat for it because now the Democrats can do a lot of work in a House they not only have a majority in, but likely lead by thirty seats.
7. What a night in Gubernatorial Races- First to the Republican side, they kept popular governors there, Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, Phil Scott in the Northeast. There likely won't be much that gets done in redistricting there as it'll be tough since all three of those states are widely Democratic anyway. However, that doesn't all do it for Republicans. Mike DeWine beat Richard Cordray in Ohio, beating a powerful Democrat that could have sent another major shockwave. Ron DeSantis appears to be willing to hold off Andrew Gillum in Florida, preventing a major shockwave again. And it appears Brian Kemp could hold off Stacey Abrams from a run-off election in December..
8. However.. that is about the extent of the Republicans success: The major successes of the night happened on the flip side of this for gubernatorial races. Starting up the coast in Maine, Janet Mills flipped that to Democrat. Ned Lamont held off a fierce Republican challenge to win Connecticut after very deeply unpopular Dannel Malloy left office. Toward the Midwest, it got bad for Republicans really, really quickly. J.B. Pritzker ran away with the Illinois race, an expected rout for the Democrats. Gretchen Whitmer won in Michigan, after a deeply unpopular Republican Rick Snyder was term-limited. Out west, New Mexico took Michelle Grisham to the Governor's Mansion in another flip. In Nevada, Steve Sisolak upset Adam Laxalt to retake the Democrats control in that Gubernatorial race. However, the two shockwaves happened in the Midwest. Laura Kelly beat Kris Kobach in Kansas and Tony Evers upset Scott Walker in Wisconsin. Kelly's win was significant due to the hostility of what Kobach represented. The Evers' upset represented how much more coordinated the Democrats have become in four years in the state.
9. Women bust records but so do LGBTQ+ candidates: Women are no longer just the backmarker in politics, and given how men have operated the White House the last couple of years and essentially Congress forever it might not be a bad idea for a massive change. Women have set high markers in the House this mid-term and by 2020 should set more markers in the Senate. The all-time highs can also be attributed to the state houses and senates across the nation. However, LGBTQ+ candidates on Election Night and afterward had a terrific night. Openly gay Democrat Jared Polis was elected governor of Colorado, openly gay Senator Tammy Baldwin was re-elected. However, openly gay Sharice Davids won a House race in Kansas of all places. Bisexual candidates Katie Hill and Kyrsten Sinema won their races in California and Arizona respectively. This also goes with different ethnic groups winning for the first times ever. Native Americans, Latinas and Somali-Americans will be introduced to Congress as House members for the first time, and oh yeah they are women too. Women won Gubernatorial races as well. The aforementioned Grisham, Whitmer, Kelly and Mills and Iowa Republican Kim Reynolds join the fray. Ditto with Kate Brown in Oregon, Kay Ivey in Alabama, and Kristi Noem in South Dakota. Like I said, if men cannot do the job, then women should be capable of doing a better job.
10. The Heartbreak stories: Without Election Night, there would be no Cinderella stories in politics (see really most of the above for that, plus some others I didn't mention) but then there wouldn't be the heartbreak stories that can evolve over a campaign. There are many but none bigger than Beto O'Rourke. The Texas Democrat who represented El Paso in the House of Representatives spent the better part of a year in every county, 254 to be exact, traveling to different people in the state. Some are more likely than others to vote for him. However, he was determined and fired up. In the second debate against Ted Cruz, he was fiercely aggressive to the point that the next day he apologized for that. When the votes were tallying up, he was in a dead heat a lot of the night against Cruz. But with about 80 percent of the vote in the state, it was announced that Cruz would win. It was a brutal reminder that sometimes these stories are buried.
If I missed anything, let me know! Before we know it, 2020 is around the corner and those damn political ads will be at it again!
Saturday, November 3, 2018
Election 2018: Senate Races
To conclude the Election 2018 triple-header is the Senate races. To prelude this, the Senate will start at 51 Republicans, technically 47 Democrats and 2 Independents, but those Independents are technically labeled as Democrats as they caucus with them. Also to prelude more, the Independents (Bernie Sanders and Angus King) are in no way in any in danger of losing their seats in Vermont and Maine. There are a lot of seats that I will cover, regardless of if they are changing or not. The GOP is more in favor of keeping their majority, as a lot of seats are being contended on their turf which is something they can't say come 2020 or 2022. With that, here is what to look for in Tuesday's Senate elections.
Florida: Was there ever really a surprise when so many House races are up for grabs here and the state is also in a Governor's race that is also very heated in literal and figurative senses that this would also be front and center in a very hotly contested Senate race? Bill Nelson is trying to keep this seat for the Democrats against Rick Scott, current Republican governor of the state. This race will likely very much mirror the Governor's race in this state. To put it nicely, this race has been brutal, but without the race factor like the Governor's race. Both have been chided for different issues, but both have also been credited by their own people for doing well to keep with the bases. This will be a race that goes long, long into the night. I would not be surprised if by early morning, this race is not called.
Result: I feel this all depends on the Governor's race and the contested House races as well. Typically I don't align either with a Senate race, but with a state as polarized in politics as Florida is, and as much as the state is divided, this could come down to those factors. I wouldn't be surprised as well if automatic recounts happen in this race as well. I feel Nelson holds this seat by the skin of his teeth, somewhere around 20,000 votes after a recount is automated.
Missouri: If Florida is the one to watch, Missouri may be the second to watch here. Republican Josh Hawley is looking to finally take down Democrat Claire McAskill. The Democrat beat out Jim Talent in 2006 due to, ironically, a blue wave that swept the country and held onto the seat in 2012 due to Todd Akin being a twit. Hawley hasn't made a controversial, hot-button remark in recent weeks which helps him in this race. McAskill has been someone who is a virtue of luck in two straight elections. However, it is possible that McAskill voting no to Judge Kavanaugh costs her this seat (more on that in North Dakota.) However, it doesn't appear this may be as much of a factor as different outliers do in this state. It has progressively gone more red in the last decade, to where it wasn't even really too close to call in 2016 and rather it was to Trump easily while the Senate was more too close to call most of the night. This will be another race that is too close to call one would suspect.
Result: This is almost assuredly going to automatic recall with the way it has been nearly deadlocked all the way through. Unless one candidate in the last couple of days massively screws up and says something that makes people just drop off the map, this will be a tale of four areas: St. Louis, Columbia, Kansas City, and then the rest of the state. Democrat turnout needs to be massively high in the first three areas, and for the Republicans, it needs to be high everywhere else to win. If I had to flip a coin, I would say Hawley wins this, but by less than 10,000 votes and that might be a generous number.
Arizona: With the map that is playing out for the election, the Democrats will have to hope to switch four seats and Arizona is one of those. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is a rising political star in this state and she takes on Republican Martha McSally. When the GOP primary was going on, Sinema was cruising to the lead as well as having a ground game that is second-to-none that continues today. This would be a big blow to the GOP if they lose it, who have held this seat for a long, long time. McSally emerged as the victor in that absolutely brutal primary. She has come back to make this a very competitive race. Some of the other factors come to play here, but the overarching theme will be how does the Latino/Hispanic vote come forward here for the Democrats or the Republicans. It will come down to that and how strong the turnout is in the heavily Democrat and heavily Republican areas.
Result: I think this seat will be too close to call as well all night. I also think with as gruesome and brutal this race has been in terms of character slandering, it brings out a lot of the party's voters and some voters that may switch parties. I think after this being too close to call all night that Sinema outlasts McSally by around 15,000 votes this time in round to flip this seat to Blue.
Nevada: This has been the seat the Democrats have frothed at the mouth since 2017. They have wanted to take out Dean Heller since they failed to in 2012. This time though, they have a chance with Jacky Rosen, who is also a rising star like Sinema. However, Heller has held tough in this election campaign despite the heavy pressure. He might be the Republican version of McAskill, where he possesses the massive luck material to get through difficult challenges in any election battle. However, as noted above, I have McAskill falling to Hawley in Missouri. Can Heller get the Republican turnout in a year that the Democrats really want to flip this?
Result: Much like McAskill, this likely is the end of the line regardless for Heller. He likely wouldn't survive in 2024 in a Presidential year. He also may run out of luck come Tuesday night anyway. The playbook for Rosen should be one that Catherine Cortez-Masto used in 2016 in a narrow win in the Senate. However, in a possible Democrat year, this likely will be less than 10,000 votes and that's also likely being generous.
North Dakota: To put it short and easy, Heidi Heitkamp is not going to keep this seat to the Democrats unless there is a massive controversy for Republican Kevin Cramer. Heitkamp will be a one-term Senator. The Republicans will switch this to their column.
Indiana: Joe Donnelly got by in 2012 thanks to a GOP primary that gave Richard Mourdock a shot at him rather than Richard Luger. The Democrat got Mike Braun this time in round and either way, whoever it would have been, it would be a struggle bus to say the least. Donnelly will need huge turnout in Democrat heavy areas and Braun will need to probably pull away some moderate Democrats from the Donnelly crowd to win this election. It will be a race that is too close to call most of the night anyway.
Result: If Gary, Indy and places like Fort Wayne and South Bend go for the Democrat in healthy margins, then Braun needs to get heavy turnout in rural areas. I think Donnelly gets a couple percentage points of a win in the end and escapes this election the winner.
Montana: Jon Tester faces another good haired fellow, Republican Matt Rosendale. The difference here may be whether voters still hold the no vote of Judge Kavanaugh over the head of Tester or not. He's been a popular senator since his election in 2006, but he could meet a solid matchup in Rosendale. Rosendale is popular with the Trump administration, and he could be favorable in the state which heavily went for him two years ago. However, the state went pretty well for the Republican Mitt Romney in 2012 and Tester won then too. The big cities and populous counties will need to come in for Tester in healthy numbers. If he does, he likely holds the seat. If not, Rosendale can score the upset here.
Result: I believe, like others, Tester escapes this narrowly. A lot of these too close to call elections will be very tight all night. This likely will not be called on the night of Election night and may go until sometime on Wednesday before a true winner is declared. I may not stretch it to recall territory, but it will be one that will be within 10,000 votes (and the only reason I don't say recall is Montana is a much less populous state than others listed above.)
Tennessee: This race between Republican Marsha Blackburn and Democrat and former governor Phil Bredesen has attracted a lot of attention both politically and in the music world with Bredesen getting endorsed by Taylor Swift. This race is probably a shot in the arm for Democrats who otherwise wouldn't be in this race if not for the popular Bredesen. He's more of a moderate Democrat than a liberal or ultra-liberal. Blackburn has been using her support for Trump as a calling card in a state that is Trump-friendly. Will that be the difference? We'll see. Big city turnout for Bredesen will be key to him keeping it close. And he'll have to hope for some rural support on him as well, especially more in the Eastern part of the state. If he gets that, it's more favorable for Bredesen to pull the upset and pick up a seat for the Democrats.
Result: While Bredesen gets support in cities like Nashville and Memphis, he doesn't get it elsewhere most likely due to the Republican nature of the state. Bredesen could get support in the Memphis and Nashville suburbs but it has to work deeper in the state than that. I think Blackburn wins by 4-6 percentage points and this seat is one that the Republicans will be happy to keep.
Texas: This really shouldn't be a contest due to the nature politically of the state and the fact that Ted Cruz had been very much a popular figure here for a while. However, Beto O'Rourke has made this a race. He's likely not to win the state, but he has started to change the face of the Democrats in this state in a way that could see them win later on down the road in different elections. However, the best way this stays close is huge turnout for O'Rourke in college cities in west/southwest Texas as well as Corpus Christi in addition to heavy turnout in Dallas/Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Houston for him to give him a chance. Cruz will likely take this state, but O'Rourke has built something the Democrats can take forward at least.
Result: Expect Cruz to win anywhere from 5-7 percentage points. It'll be closer than usual elections and much closer than the Governor's race in this state.
Other states to watch just for watching sake: Virginia to see how much Tim Kaine wins by, Ohio and Wisconsin as those Senate margins will be much more than the Gubernatorial races, and the special election in Mississippi to see how that goes between all the candidates.
Florida: Was there ever really a surprise when so many House races are up for grabs here and the state is also in a Governor's race that is also very heated in literal and figurative senses that this would also be front and center in a very hotly contested Senate race? Bill Nelson is trying to keep this seat for the Democrats against Rick Scott, current Republican governor of the state. This race will likely very much mirror the Governor's race in this state. To put it nicely, this race has been brutal, but without the race factor like the Governor's race. Both have been chided for different issues, but both have also been credited by their own people for doing well to keep with the bases. This will be a race that goes long, long into the night. I would not be surprised if by early morning, this race is not called.
Result: I feel this all depends on the Governor's race and the contested House races as well. Typically I don't align either with a Senate race, but with a state as polarized in politics as Florida is, and as much as the state is divided, this could come down to those factors. I wouldn't be surprised as well if automatic recounts happen in this race as well. I feel Nelson holds this seat by the skin of his teeth, somewhere around 20,000 votes after a recount is automated.
Missouri: If Florida is the one to watch, Missouri may be the second to watch here. Republican Josh Hawley is looking to finally take down Democrat Claire McAskill. The Democrat beat out Jim Talent in 2006 due to, ironically, a blue wave that swept the country and held onto the seat in 2012 due to Todd Akin being a twit. Hawley hasn't made a controversial, hot-button remark in recent weeks which helps him in this race. McAskill has been someone who is a virtue of luck in two straight elections. However, it is possible that McAskill voting no to Judge Kavanaugh costs her this seat (more on that in North Dakota.) However, it doesn't appear this may be as much of a factor as different outliers do in this state. It has progressively gone more red in the last decade, to where it wasn't even really too close to call in 2016 and rather it was to Trump easily while the Senate was more too close to call most of the night. This will be another race that is too close to call one would suspect.
Result: This is almost assuredly going to automatic recall with the way it has been nearly deadlocked all the way through. Unless one candidate in the last couple of days massively screws up and says something that makes people just drop off the map, this will be a tale of four areas: St. Louis, Columbia, Kansas City, and then the rest of the state. Democrat turnout needs to be massively high in the first three areas, and for the Republicans, it needs to be high everywhere else to win. If I had to flip a coin, I would say Hawley wins this, but by less than 10,000 votes and that might be a generous number.
Arizona: With the map that is playing out for the election, the Democrats will have to hope to switch four seats and Arizona is one of those. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is a rising political star in this state and she takes on Republican Martha McSally. When the GOP primary was going on, Sinema was cruising to the lead as well as having a ground game that is second-to-none that continues today. This would be a big blow to the GOP if they lose it, who have held this seat for a long, long time. McSally emerged as the victor in that absolutely brutal primary. She has come back to make this a very competitive race. Some of the other factors come to play here, but the overarching theme will be how does the Latino/Hispanic vote come forward here for the Democrats or the Republicans. It will come down to that and how strong the turnout is in the heavily Democrat and heavily Republican areas.
Result: I think this seat will be too close to call as well all night. I also think with as gruesome and brutal this race has been in terms of character slandering, it brings out a lot of the party's voters and some voters that may switch parties. I think after this being too close to call all night that Sinema outlasts McSally by around 15,000 votes this time in round to flip this seat to Blue.
Nevada: This has been the seat the Democrats have frothed at the mouth since 2017. They have wanted to take out Dean Heller since they failed to in 2012. This time though, they have a chance with Jacky Rosen, who is also a rising star like Sinema. However, Heller has held tough in this election campaign despite the heavy pressure. He might be the Republican version of McAskill, where he possesses the massive luck material to get through difficult challenges in any election battle. However, as noted above, I have McAskill falling to Hawley in Missouri. Can Heller get the Republican turnout in a year that the Democrats really want to flip this?
Result: Much like McAskill, this likely is the end of the line regardless for Heller. He likely wouldn't survive in 2024 in a Presidential year. He also may run out of luck come Tuesday night anyway. The playbook for Rosen should be one that Catherine Cortez-Masto used in 2016 in a narrow win in the Senate. However, in a possible Democrat year, this likely will be less than 10,000 votes and that's also likely being generous.
North Dakota: To put it short and easy, Heidi Heitkamp is not going to keep this seat to the Democrats unless there is a massive controversy for Republican Kevin Cramer. Heitkamp will be a one-term Senator. The Republicans will switch this to their column.
Indiana: Joe Donnelly got by in 2012 thanks to a GOP primary that gave Richard Mourdock a shot at him rather than Richard Luger. The Democrat got Mike Braun this time in round and either way, whoever it would have been, it would be a struggle bus to say the least. Donnelly will need huge turnout in Democrat heavy areas and Braun will need to probably pull away some moderate Democrats from the Donnelly crowd to win this election. It will be a race that is too close to call most of the night anyway.
Result: If Gary, Indy and places like Fort Wayne and South Bend go for the Democrat in healthy margins, then Braun needs to get heavy turnout in rural areas. I think Donnelly gets a couple percentage points of a win in the end and escapes this election the winner.
Montana: Jon Tester faces another good haired fellow, Republican Matt Rosendale. The difference here may be whether voters still hold the no vote of Judge Kavanaugh over the head of Tester or not. He's been a popular senator since his election in 2006, but he could meet a solid matchup in Rosendale. Rosendale is popular with the Trump administration, and he could be favorable in the state which heavily went for him two years ago. However, the state went pretty well for the Republican Mitt Romney in 2012 and Tester won then too. The big cities and populous counties will need to come in for Tester in healthy numbers. If he does, he likely holds the seat. If not, Rosendale can score the upset here.
Result: I believe, like others, Tester escapes this narrowly. A lot of these too close to call elections will be very tight all night. This likely will not be called on the night of Election night and may go until sometime on Wednesday before a true winner is declared. I may not stretch it to recall territory, but it will be one that will be within 10,000 votes (and the only reason I don't say recall is Montana is a much less populous state than others listed above.)
Tennessee: This race between Republican Marsha Blackburn and Democrat and former governor Phil Bredesen has attracted a lot of attention both politically and in the music world with Bredesen getting endorsed by Taylor Swift. This race is probably a shot in the arm for Democrats who otherwise wouldn't be in this race if not for the popular Bredesen. He's more of a moderate Democrat than a liberal or ultra-liberal. Blackburn has been using her support for Trump as a calling card in a state that is Trump-friendly. Will that be the difference? We'll see. Big city turnout for Bredesen will be key to him keeping it close. And he'll have to hope for some rural support on him as well, especially more in the Eastern part of the state. If he gets that, it's more favorable for Bredesen to pull the upset and pick up a seat for the Democrats.
Result: While Bredesen gets support in cities like Nashville and Memphis, he doesn't get it elsewhere most likely due to the Republican nature of the state. Bredesen could get support in the Memphis and Nashville suburbs but it has to work deeper in the state than that. I think Blackburn wins by 4-6 percentage points and this seat is one that the Republicans will be happy to keep.
Texas: This really shouldn't be a contest due to the nature politically of the state and the fact that Ted Cruz had been very much a popular figure here for a while. However, Beto O'Rourke has made this a race. He's likely not to win the state, but he has started to change the face of the Democrats in this state in a way that could see them win later on down the road in different elections. However, the best way this stays close is huge turnout for O'Rourke in college cities in west/southwest Texas as well as Corpus Christi in addition to heavy turnout in Dallas/Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Houston for him to give him a chance. Cruz will likely take this state, but O'Rourke has built something the Democrats can take forward at least.
Result: Expect Cruz to win anywhere from 5-7 percentage points. It'll be closer than usual elections and much closer than the Governor's race in this state.
Other states to watch just for watching sake: Virginia to see how much Tim Kaine wins by, Ohio and Wisconsin as those Senate margins will be much more than the Gubernatorial races, and the special election in Mississippi to see how that goes between all the candidates.
Friday, November 2, 2018
Election 2018: Does the House turn Blue?
This will be part two of three. The finale of this comes in during the weekend as well. This will be a breakdown of states that races can swing the House in one way or another. Will the Democrats be able to pick up the 23 seats needed to take back the House? With that, here are the states that will prove pivotal for the Democrats to take back the House, or the Republicans holding it. At the end, I'll give my rough estimate of how I think the final tally will be.
California: This is no surprise. This has been one of the top Democrat targets all season, dating back to the election season of 2017. The favor for the Democrats? 12 districts in play and only two features an incumbent Democrat (the 24th and 7th, both of which they are likely to win) and ten they could flip Democrat if the cards play right. It's more likely of those ten, they take five which is a significant amount regardless. The House could still be up in the air by California, so keep an eye to see how well the Democrats are holding or how well the Republicans are holding.
Florida: No surprise here, as the state this election season is getting very, very serious down the stretch. There's a senate race that is closely watched, as well as a Governor's race in Florida. So how do you also equate the House? How about nine of the districts up for grabs as well? Yes, Florida is going to be the most adventurous of the states on this night. The Dems are hoping to keep the two they have, plus flip at least three of the remaining seven. Those would be the 15th, 26th and 27th. Those three are very much up for grabs late in the campaign.
Pennsylvania: Another state that is huge for the Democrats. However, this one is due to redistricting and it benefits the Democrats more so going forward. There are nine seats up for grabs. While they'll lose one (The 14th) they may be alright with that if they can hold their other seat and sweep taking the other seven seats. It'll likely not happen, but they are favored in four of those seats to take over already.
New Jersey: The Democrats are looking to hold one of the competitive districts in this state while also looking to flip four from red to blue. This is a lot of defense coming from the GOP early in these, a trend you'll see a lot. The Democrats are favored to win three of those four, with the 3rd district squarely in toss up territory.
Iowa: This will be a key-bearer test for the Democrats to see what inroads they have made since the disastrous 2016 campaign. They are competitive in all four districts. However, they are slated to hold onto the one they have plus pick up two. The biggest test is can they somehow unseat Steve King in IA-4? If so, that'll send a shocking wave to a lot of Republicans this campaign.
Kansas: Another state that could be a bellweather for the Democrats. From 2016, where they didn't come within 10 points of any race, to this moment where they can pick up two seats in this state speaks volumes for their House bid and how much the Republicans are lacking a clear voice in their party at the current outstanding moment.
New York: New York has seven competitive districts, and really it could be just three to look at on Tuesday night. Those are the 19th, 22nd and really pick a choice between the 1st, 11th and 27th. The Democrats could flip three, though two may be more satisfactory in this election cycle. It's also one that they wouldn't mind having in their back pockets.
Virginia: Virginia has at least one seat going from GOP to Democrat, and three more could follow as they are in toss-up territory. Barbara Comstock was always very vulnerable in the 10th district and Jennifer Wexton may finally put the nail in the coffin for her. Also to look for: The 2nd, 5th and 7th districts. The Dems want two of those three in their column, and they have them squarely in toss-up range.
Minnesota: Minnesota has eight districts, five of which are being looked at on Election Night. Democrats are playing defense in the 8th district, and are likely to lose this seat. However, they want desperately to hold the 1st and 7th districts while taking the 2nd and 3rd districts. It could be a wash in this state for Democrats on Election Night if they lose the 1st and 7th. Or if they kept those two and took the others, a great escape perhaps?
Honorable Mentions to look at: Ohio, Texas, Washington, Colorado, Arizona, Alaska, Montana and Utah.
With that, as I eluded to at the top of the column, the Democrats need to flip 23 seats to take the house. With projections already, they are at a net gain of 13 and putting them at 203, meaning they need to hold their five currently in toss-up range and take 10 from the toss-up range to get a majority in the house. There have been wild numbers floating around as to the number they take back in the House. However, I'll guess with the races in toss-up territory that are red seats already (31) and I believe based on the polling that the Democrats could take 16 of those. Therefore, I suspect the end result will be 224-211 for the Democrats in this House election.
California: This is no surprise. This has been one of the top Democrat targets all season, dating back to the election season of 2017. The favor for the Democrats? 12 districts in play and only two features an incumbent Democrat (the 24th and 7th, both of which they are likely to win) and ten they could flip Democrat if the cards play right. It's more likely of those ten, they take five which is a significant amount regardless. The House could still be up in the air by California, so keep an eye to see how well the Democrats are holding or how well the Republicans are holding.
Florida: No surprise here, as the state this election season is getting very, very serious down the stretch. There's a senate race that is closely watched, as well as a Governor's race in Florida. So how do you also equate the House? How about nine of the districts up for grabs as well? Yes, Florida is going to be the most adventurous of the states on this night. The Dems are hoping to keep the two they have, plus flip at least three of the remaining seven. Those would be the 15th, 26th and 27th. Those three are very much up for grabs late in the campaign.
Pennsylvania: Another state that is huge for the Democrats. However, this one is due to redistricting and it benefits the Democrats more so going forward. There are nine seats up for grabs. While they'll lose one (The 14th) they may be alright with that if they can hold their other seat and sweep taking the other seven seats. It'll likely not happen, but they are favored in four of those seats to take over already.
New Jersey: The Democrats are looking to hold one of the competitive districts in this state while also looking to flip four from red to blue. This is a lot of defense coming from the GOP early in these, a trend you'll see a lot. The Democrats are favored to win three of those four, with the 3rd district squarely in toss up territory.
Iowa: This will be a key-bearer test for the Democrats to see what inroads they have made since the disastrous 2016 campaign. They are competitive in all four districts. However, they are slated to hold onto the one they have plus pick up two. The biggest test is can they somehow unseat Steve King in IA-4? If so, that'll send a shocking wave to a lot of Republicans this campaign.
Kansas: Another state that could be a bellweather for the Democrats. From 2016, where they didn't come within 10 points of any race, to this moment where they can pick up two seats in this state speaks volumes for their House bid and how much the Republicans are lacking a clear voice in their party at the current outstanding moment.
New York: New York has seven competitive districts, and really it could be just three to look at on Tuesday night. Those are the 19th, 22nd and really pick a choice between the 1st, 11th and 27th. The Democrats could flip three, though two may be more satisfactory in this election cycle. It's also one that they wouldn't mind having in their back pockets.
Virginia: Virginia has at least one seat going from GOP to Democrat, and three more could follow as they are in toss-up territory. Barbara Comstock was always very vulnerable in the 10th district and Jennifer Wexton may finally put the nail in the coffin for her. Also to look for: The 2nd, 5th and 7th districts. The Dems want two of those three in their column, and they have them squarely in toss-up range.
Minnesota: Minnesota has eight districts, five of which are being looked at on Election Night. Democrats are playing defense in the 8th district, and are likely to lose this seat. However, they want desperately to hold the 1st and 7th districts while taking the 2nd and 3rd districts. It could be a wash in this state for Democrats on Election Night if they lose the 1st and 7th. Or if they kept those two and took the others, a great escape perhaps?
Honorable Mentions to look at: Ohio, Texas, Washington, Colorado, Arizona, Alaska, Montana and Utah.
With that, as I eluded to at the top of the column, the Democrats need to flip 23 seats to take the house. With projections already, they are at a net gain of 13 and putting them at 203, meaning they need to hold their five currently in toss-up range and take 10 from the toss-up range to get a majority in the house. There have been wild numbers floating around as to the number they take back in the House. However, I'll guess with the races in toss-up territory that are red seats already (31) and I believe based on the polling that the Democrats could take 16 of those. Therefore, I suspect the end result will be 224-211 for the Democrats in this House election.
Friday, October 26, 2018
Election 2018: Governor's Races
I don't try to get too political out there in the world of everything, however I feel this is something I can do without being a biased hack (see... well any cable news network out there) and summarizing the races that I think will be big watches in the nation on Election Night. This'll be a three-part series, first with the gubernatorial elections across the country, then the states with the most key of house races, and then the Senate races. With the gubernatorial and Senate races, I'll go through what the experts call the battleground states or ones that in my opinion could flip. Now I am nowhere near the greatness that is a Steve Kornacki or John King or even Nate Silver for that matter. I more or less base it on the polling that I have seen over the course of the summer and fall and base it kind of off of that. With that, entering election night, the governors by party are this: 33 Republicans, 16 Democrats and 1 Independent (Alaska.) That one Independent has withdrawn by the way, lending his support to the Democrat in that state. So what states are to watch for on Election Night?
Florida: This one not only was the biggest no-brainer, it's also the most closely watched Governor's race in the entire country in a country that will be absolutely full of them. It's Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum vs. former US Representative Ron DeSantis. To say this contest has been anything but scathing is honestly putting this race in nice terms. It's been absolutely brutal bashing between the two. DeSantis was probably the GOP's nomination on this and he is a Trump loyalist in a state that voted for him two years ago. However, Gillum was not only a surprise, he wasn't even the Democrats first choice in the state before he scored the upset in the Primary. However, he has shouldered a lot of people on his back and won the Democrats full support. The debates have been well... not very kind to either to be nice again. In an almost scorched Earth set of debates, it now comes down to who has the best ground game. Gillum is heavily relying on great turnout of minorities, especially in Broward, Brevard, Miami-Dade, and Orange counties as well as the county Tallahassee encompasses while also drawing enough in the Tampa/St. Pete area. DeSantis is hoping for Charlie Crist type levels on the Democratic side four years ago to spring him into the Governor's seat (also, ironically, in Tallahassee.) This race will literally be too close to call all night probably, leading both parties to wonder when to go out for the late night food. The key to this is can Gillum get the turnout in the counties above, unlike Crist four years ago and Clinton two years ago? It's very possible. And yes this race has seen it's share of controversy, including the issue of immigration and sadly race. Fair or not, it's something that DeSantis has had to overcome in this stretch. And this hasn't even mentioned how this race may be impacted by the Senate race on the top of the ticket between Rick Scott and Bill Nelson. Don't be surprised if either candidate who wins sees the Senator in the same party win, as both races are dastardly close.
Result: To me, don't be surprised if on Election Night this race isn't called. As brutal as this race has been, it's all about the turnout. I think the ground game for Gillum gets it done narrowly, by maybe 50,000 votes or so. This could be a recount scenario in the works. However, I think the Democrats flip this seat to them when it is all said and done.
Wisconsin: For my home staters, you won't need to read too far into this to see how I think Wisconsin goes. It's probably the second most watched race, unless you think Ohio is. Either way, Wisconsin is second or third because of the way this race has shaped up. You have two-term incumbent and Republican Scott Walker vs. State Superintendent and Democrat Tony Evers. Walker has, for seemingly all purposes, been embattled since 2012 in his seat. He managed to beat Mary Burke in 2014 due to depressed turnout in major Wisconsin Democrat strongholds. It's also the sight of likely the dagger in Hillary Clinton's Presidential hopes as she lost Wisconsin by just north of 30,000 votes in 2016. Trump's popularity in the state has waned a lot since that win (not like it was high to begin with, he won the state with a plurality rather than majority.) He also hasn't been campaigning as hard for Walker, probably due to the 2016 duel they had in the election primary cycle. There is a Senate race here, but that is more or less not in question. There's only one house race theoretically up for grabs but the likeliness that affects this race is small, and the more open question would be how does this race affect the House race? If you are from Wisconsin, you know what to look for. If you are reading this and don't know where to look on Election Night for this, here is where. For the Republicans, they have to hope for good, strong turnout in the Fox Valley, which stretches essentially from Green Bay southward to just south of Fond Du Lac. They also have to get strong turnout from Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties. The central part of the state should go for them, so this should be not as prioritized on their behalf but they should still look to get votes. How does Evers win though? Strong turnout in Madison/Dane Co., Milwaukee County, Racine and Kenosha Counties as well as places where education is important. He's going to win Madison and Milwaukee going away and it won't be close. Can he get Rock/Walworth counties close with the education there? Can he narrow the gap in both Brown and Outagamie counties? Can he do better than Burke in Eau Claire and La Crosse? These are all crucial to the hope for the Democrats to flip this seat that they even thought wouldn't happen at the start of the year. Remember this, Governor Walker has been embattled twice, once in 2012 with a recall and 2014 and won both of those because the Democrats fielded below average candidates. However, it may be time he met someone who could be a rising star for the Democrats in Wisconsin.
Result: Expect this to be too close to call most of the night, as the votes from Dane and Milwaukee Counties are typically slower than those in Waukesha and others in counting. However, by maybe 1.5 percentage points, I believe that Tony Evers flips Wisconsin blue.
Georgia: Who on Earth would have thought this state would be looked at on Election Night? That changed when Brian Kemp won the GOP run-off in this state and Stacey Abrams won the Democratic primary. This race has seen polls not much more than 2 points to either side. It's a state that demographically is starting to change, much like Colorado and Virginia did in the last 5-10 years. It's a state that Abrams is hoping that demographically changing can go her way. She's hoping to employ a bit of the same playbook as Evers, in terms of racking up the votes where she is knowing to be successful and narrow the gap in places that Kemp should win. It's also a strong and tall task to beat Kemp, and one that if she did do so would change this state's politics likely forever. If Abrams wins, she will have done it in major cities and college cities like Athens and obviously Atlanta and parts of its metro area. I would look at 2016 as an example, as Hillary Clinton had this too close to call parts of the night, but ultimately Trump won this state as well (notice a trend here?) Kemp needs to ride high with the numbers where he is going to do typically well in, especially the north and south central parts of the state.
Result: Don't be surprised if this is too close to call a majority of the night. Turnout will be key for Abrams. However, I think the dream ends by about 3 percentage points and Kemp keeps this state in the GOP column.
Ohio: Yep, you knew this state would be on there. Oddly enough, what happens at the top won't necessarily reflect the governor's race one would suspect. That's because Sherrod Brown is going to win his Senate seat by double digits and this race will be tighter. It is Mike DeWine vs. Richard Cordray. DeWine comes as a former senator for the state, while Cordray is a former Obama appointee to the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau. Cordray beat Dennis Kucinich in the Democratic primary and it set this showdown up. This was a state that went to Obama twice, so that could portend to Cordray. It's also a state that went to Trump, again noticing a trend? The central part of the state, minus Franklin County, should be high numbers for the DeWine campaign. Athens County is typically a liberal county and so is Franklin County so that should go well for Cordray. Let's be honest though, this race will be won in two areas, southwest Ohio and northeast Ohio. Hamilton County is Cincinnati and that could go well for Cordray if it goes for him. Also, the northern/northeast section from Toledo through Cuyahoga County in Cleveland will be huge to Cordray. If he gets the turnout and the Republicans don't, another Governors seat switches blue this year. If DeWine can get strong turnout, especially in the suburbs of Cincy, Cleveland and Toledo as well as Columbus then he has a big chance in a big state for the Republicans.
Result: Don't be surprised if every new organization is going absolutely bat crap crazy by 10pm central, as at least four races (possibly up to 6-7) could be too close to call for a while. I would suspect this is the same way. However, I think Cordray gets the support that Clinton didn't in Cleveland, Columbus and some outlying areas as well. He wins by 3.5 percentage points and another red governor's race turns blue.
Illinois: This'll be short and sweet, as I am tagging the Midwest. This seat will change, but it's not going to be a tossup. Republican Bruce Rauner is the most vulnerable of any incumbent. Democrat J.B. Pritzker is going to rout this race and a fourth seat turns blue.
Michigan: Another race at this point that a Midwest seat could change color. While Democrat Gretchen Whitmer has not strayed from the lead since the calendar year flipped, she also hasn't trailed or tied in any poll since the start of the year either. That doesn't bode well for Republican Bill Schuette either as he looks to close this race within the last couple of weeks. He's only been as close as five points in polls, other than a one point poll in June. It doesn't help that outgoing Governor Rick Snyder is so disliked and a polarizing Republican. Essentially, another trend happening here as Michigan went for Trump in 2016, but a state that likely should go blue this go around. I'd suspect this goes by 8-9 percentage points. This is now the fifth race that I project from red to blue.
Maine: To take a break from the Midwest oh so shortly, as I'll be back to that shortly. Maine is the one Northeast state that will be competitive barring a miracle in Rhode Island. Maine has Republican Shawn Moody taking on Democrat Janet Mills. Republican Paul LePage is outgoing and he is not well liked, much like Snyder but without the Flint controversy. Mills has, somehow, led every poll since the primary by eight points. So naturally I'll just say Mills wins by eight points. This will be the sixth race to turn blue.
Iowa: Like I said, I'd go back to the Midwest. Iowa is ANOTHER Midwest Gubernatorial race that is going to be one that comes down to the wire. This one is a bit of a surprise, but it may also signal the distrust/frustration towards the current administration. After Terry Branstad left to be part of the administration, Kim Reynolds was appointed to be governor after this. However, she faces a tough re-election campaign against Democrat and businessman Fred Hubbell. This state also faces three very important House races that could very well play a role into the Governor race here. For Hubbell, he'll have to connect with those in the Quad Cities area as well as Dubuque as he already has a good following from the primary in the central Des Moines metro area. For Reynolds, she needs turnout in rural Iowa to be high as well as good turnout for her in the Clinton/Davenport as well as Dubuque area. Polls haven't been wide and conducive like other Midwestern states. However, with the way it could go, don't be surprised if this race ends like others.
Result: This will likely will be too close to call for a while given the nature of the state and the race itself. I would not be surprised by midnight central if this race is finally decided, but I think if Des Moines heavily turns out for Hubbell, he'll win the race. Don't be surprised if it goes to a recount and it is decided by less than 20,000 votes. Yes, again I think this race goes to a Democrat.
Kansas: This might be one of the biggest switches if the Democrat wins in Kansas. The biggest wild card to this is going to be Independent Greg Orman. He gave Pat Roberts a run in the 2014 Senate race before losing to him. However, he's entered in this race and can play a spoiler either to Kris Kobach, the Republican, or Laura Kelly, the Democrat. It's still a dead heat in the polls. It always has been since the primaries. Kobach is a very controversial figure, but is a Trump loyalist in a state that is very pro-Trump. However, he may be too much of a firebrand and too much like Sam Brownback, who was very disliked by the time he resigned. Enter the opportunity with Kelly and the Democrats. Kelly doesn't have any of those major red flags, but she is a Democrat in a very Republican state so this will have always been an uphill battle from the start. If the Democrats can pull this race off, then they deserve a massive pat on the back. And it might be one that the Republicans are then kicking themselves over for a long, long time. The state also features two to three House races that could be pivotal to this Governor's race as well. For Kelly, she needs turnout in KC, Wichita, Lawrence and Manhattan (either typically Democratic or very strong education bases.) For Kobach, he's got to hope for strong turnout in west Kansas, northern Kansas and southern as well as getting a decent set of support in the cities listed above. The wild card is Orman, who can influence and will influence this race. He's been polling in the low double digits, but that's a significant amount in a race that both sides have cried foul against him for participating in.
Result: Like I said above, this will be a dream night for the experts. This is another race that should be noted too close to call for a majority of the night. If the polling is correct in suggesting this is a tie to one point lead either way, this will go to recount territory very much so. I would not be surprised if in the end, it is a 5-10 thousand vote margin, if not less. My inclination at this point is to go with Kobach, but I would not be surprised if Kelly wins. How much of a percentage Orman gets is going to make the difference and the location he gets that percentage.
Oklahoma: This is becoming more to Kevin Stitt, the Republican but don't count out Drew Edmundson just yet. This race is only leaning Republican, meaning it could switch if Stitt states anything controversial in the last couple of weeks. I would probably give Stitt the edge at this point, winning by around 5 points. It'll be a bit closer than most think but it's one that the GOP will relish, as it could be worse for them.
South Dakota: So this is probably the most surprising of those that are too close to call. Kristi Noem is the Republican and a former Representative for the state in DC. Billie Sutton is a state senator and the best hope for the Democrats. He is more of a moderate than a liberal, but it has been apparently largely effective in maintaining a close race since fall started. He has the support of Sioux Falls, but he needs a lot more support than just that. He'll need other support to win this election. He's done well to keep it close. How he closes this race out is up for debate. If Noem wins, it might be labeled a great escape for the Republicans.
Result: If this race really is this close, you can just throw it in with so many other races bound to be too close to call by 10 pm central. I think Noem wins this, but with it about 10 days prior to Election day, anything can happen. If Sutton wins, boy oh boy the night that Republicans will rue (as it means then likely Kansas goes Democratic too.)
Nevada: The next to last race (there's a lot) is Nevada. There's a Senate race here that will almost assuredly affect this race too. Adam Laxalt is the Republican, and Steve Sisolak the Democrat. However, this state likes to vote either none of the above or a libertarian/Independent (See: Ross Perot, Ralph Nader, and really anyone in 2016.) The key here is pretty blatantly simple, how big is the Latino turnout in Las Vegas, Reno and other Democrat strongholds? This state went to Hillary Clinton narrowly in 2016, and the Democrat won the Senate seat here as well, mainly due to the Latino/Hispanic turnout. Can Nevada's Governor race be turned blue because of that? It's entirely possible but I believe a lot of this race relies on what happens between Dean Heller and Jackie Rosen in the Senate race.
Result: It all largely depends on the Senate race, as they should mirror each other. Heller is a very, very embattled target for the Democrats to get a seat. Laxalt is different from him, but if Rosen wins, Laxalt may, depending how you see him, succumb to that similar fate as Heller. If Heller survives this race as the winner, then Laxalt wins. For now, I'll give this to Sisolak, but only because Rosen wins the Senate race.
Alaska: Finally we reach the end of this, and by the time Alaska closes we should have a good picture of the night for Republicans (note: It'll either be the Greatest Escape ever or a terrible night for Governors everywhere seemingly.) HOWEVER, their night still isn't over as Alaska is still here! Note, this race three weeks ago would not be added on. That was before a bombshell announcement. Governor Bill Walker suspended his campaign and threw his support behind the Democrat, former US Senator Mark Begich. Now the Democrat takes on Republican Mike Dunleavy. This has been a Republican leaning state since about forever (or at least since the turn of the millennium.) So that should give Dunleavy an advantage. Begich was a Senator, but he was a one term Senator. However, he is still popular in Anchorage, and western Alaska. Will that be enough to push him over the top? We'll see, as the Governor's races will be a long, long night.
Result: I see Dunleavy taking this by around four percentage points. However, Walker's influence can still very largely shape this race.
New Mexico: Editor's note, I had forgotten this was a switch when I initially posted about this. I believe that the Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham will take this race pretty handily over the Republican Steve Pearce. With all that said, keep an eye a bit on a couple of congressional districts in this state as they could very well be competitive and the Democrats want to flip the 2nd district which is a toss up.
With this, remember when I started it was 33, 16 and 1. I think the Democrats flip 9 races and we end up at 25-25 as the Republicans gain Alaska.
Florida: This one not only was the biggest no-brainer, it's also the most closely watched Governor's race in the entire country in a country that will be absolutely full of them. It's Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum vs. former US Representative Ron DeSantis. To say this contest has been anything but scathing is honestly putting this race in nice terms. It's been absolutely brutal bashing between the two. DeSantis was probably the GOP's nomination on this and he is a Trump loyalist in a state that voted for him two years ago. However, Gillum was not only a surprise, he wasn't even the Democrats first choice in the state before he scored the upset in the Primary. However, he has shouldered a lot of people on his back and won the Democrats full support. The debates have been well... not very kind to either to be nice again. In an almost scorched Earth set of debates, it now comes down to who has the best ground game. Gillum is heavily relying on great turnout of minorities, especially in Broward, Brevard, Miami-Dade, and Orange counties as well as the county Tallahassee encompasses while also drawing enough in the Tampa/St. Pete area. DeSantis is hoping for Charlie Crist type levels on the Democratic side four years ago to spring him into the Governor's seat (also, ironically, in Tallahassee.) This race will literally be too close to call all night probably, leading both parties to wonder when to go out for the late night food. The key to this is can Gillum get the turnout in the counties above, unlike Crist four years ago and Clinton two years ago? It's very possible. And yes this race has seen it's share of controversy, including the issue of immigration and sadly race. Fair or not, it's something that DeSantis has had to overcome in this stretch. And this hasn't even mentioned how this race may be impacted by the Senate race on the top of the ticket between Rick Scott and Bill Nelson. Don't be surprised if either candidate who wins sees the Senator in the same party win, as both races are dastardly close.
Result: To me, don't be surprised if on Election Night this race isn't called. As brutal as this race has been, it's all about the turnout. I think the ground game for Gillum gets it done narrowly, by maybe 50,000 votes or so. This could be a recount scenario in the works. However, I think the Democrats flip this seat to them when it is all said and done.
Wisconsin: For my home staters, you won't need to read too far into this to see how I think Wisconsin goes. It's probably the second most watched race, unless you think Ohio is. Either way, Wisconsin is second or third because of the way this race has shaped up. You have two-term incumbent and Republican Scott Walker vs. State Superintendent and Democrat Tony Evers. Walker has, for seemingly all purposes, been embattled since 2012 in his seat. He managed to beat Mary Burke in 2014 due to depressed turnout in major Wisconsin Democrat strongholds. It's also the sight of likely the dagger in Hillary Clinton's Presidential hopes as she lost Wisconsin by just north of 30,000 votes in 2016. Trump's popularity in the state has waned a lot since that win (not like it was high to begin with, he won the state with a plurality rather than majority.) He also hasn't been campaigning as hard for Walker, probably due to the 2016 duel they had in the election primary cycle. There is a Senate race here, but that is more or less not in question. There's only one house race theoretically up for grabs but the likeliness that affects this race is small, and the more open question would be how does this race affect the House race? If you are from Wisconsin, you know what to look for. If you are reading this and don't know where to look on Election Night for this, here is where. For the Republicans, they have to hope for good, strong turnout in the Fox Valley, which stretches essentially from Green Bay southward to just south of Fond Du Lac. They also have to get strong turnout from Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties. The central part of the state should go for them, so this should be not as prioritized on their behalf but they should still look to get votes. How does Evers win though? Strong turnout in Madison/Dane Co., Milwaukee County, Racine and Kenosha Counties as well as places where education is important. He's going to win Madison and Milwaukee going away and it won't be close. Can he get Rock/Walworth counties close with the education there? Can he narrow the gap in both Brown and Outagamie counties? Can he do better than Burke in Eau Claire and La Crosse? These are all crucial to the hope for the Democrats to flip this seat that they even thought wouldn't happen at the start of the year. Remember this, Governor Walker has been embattled twice, once in 2012 with a recall and 2014 and won both of those because the Democrats fielded below average candidates. However, it may be time he met someone who could be a rising star for the Democrats in Wisconsin.
Result: Expect this to be too close to call most of the night, as the votes from Dane and Milwaukee Counties are typically slower than those in Waukesha and others in counting. However, by maybe 1.5 percentage points, I believe that Tony Evers flips Wisconsin blue.
Georgia: Who on Earth would have thought this state would be looked at on Election Night? That changed when Brian Kemp won the GOP run-off in this state and Stacey Abrams won the Democratic primary. This race has seen polls not much more than 2 points to either side. It's a state that demographically is starting to change, much like Colorado and Virginia did in the last 5-10 years. It's a state that Abrams is hoping that demographically changing can go her way. She's hoping to employ a bit of the same playbook as Evers, in terms of racking up the votes where she is knowing to be successful and narrow the gap in places that Kemp should win. It's also a strong and tall task to beat Kemp, and one that if she did do so would change this state's politics likely forever. If Abrams wins, she will have done it in major cities and college cities like Athens and obviously Atlanta and parts of its metro area. I would look at 2016 as an example, as Hillary Clinton had this too close to call parts of the night, but ultimately Trump won this state as well (notice a trend here?) Kemp needs to ride high with the numbers where he is going to do typically well in, especially the north and south central parts of the state.
Result: Don't be surprised if this is too close to call a majority of the night. Turnout will be key for Abrams. However, I think the dream ends by about 3 percentage points and Kemp keeps this state in the GOP column.
Ohio: Yep, you knew this state would be on there. Oddly enough, what happens at the top won't necessarily reflect the governor's race one would suspect. That's because Sherrod Brown is going to win his Senate seat by double digits and this race will be tighter. It is Mike DeWine vs. Richard Cordray. DeWine comes as a former senator for the state, while Cordray is a former Obama appointee to the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau. Cordray beat Dennis Kucinich in the Democratic primary and it set this showdown up. This was a state that went to Obama twice, so that could portend to Cordray. It's also a state that went to Trump, again noticing a trend? The central part of the state, minus Franklin County, should be high numbers for the DeWine campaign. Athens County is typically a liberal county and so is Franklin County so that should go well for Cordray. Let's be honest though, this race will be won in two areas, southwest Ohio and northeast Ohio. Hamilton County is Cincinnati and that could go well for Cordray if it goes for him. Also, the northern/northeast section from Toledo through Cuyahoga County in Cleveland will be huge to Cordray. If he gets the turnout and the Republicans don't, another Governors seat switches blue this year. If DeWine can get strong turnout, especially in the suburbs of Cincy, Cleveland and Toledo as well as Columbus then he has a big chance in a big state for the Republicans.
Result: Don't be surprised if every new organization is going absolutely bat crap crazy by 10pm central, as at least four races (possibly up to 6-7) could be too close to call for a while. I would suspect this is the same way. However, I think Cordray gets the support that Clinton didn't in Cleveland, Columbus and some outlying areas as well. He wins by 3.5 percentage points and another red governor's race turns blue.
Illinois: This'll be short and sweet, as I am tagging the Midwest. This seat will change, but it's not going to be a tossup. Republican Bruce Rauner is the most vulnerable of any incumbent. Democrat J.B. Pritzker is going to rout this race and a fourth seat turns blue.
Michigan: Another race at this point that a Midwest seat could change color. While Democrat Gretchen Whitmer has not strayed from the lead since the calendar year flipped, she also hasn't trailed or tied in any poll since the start of the year either. That doesn't bode well for Republican Bill Schuette either as he looks to close this race within the last couple of weeks. He's only been as close as five points in polls, other than a one point poll in June. It doesn't help that outgoing Governor Rick Snyder is so disliked and a polarizing Republican. Essentially, another trend happening here as Michigan went for Trump in 2016, but a state that likely should go blue this go around. I'd suspect this goes by 8-9 percentage points. This is now the fifth race that I project from red to blue.
Maine: To take a break from the Midwest oh so shortly, as I'll be back to that shortly. Maine is the one Northeast state that will be competitive barring a miracle in Rhode Island. Maine has Republican Shawn Moody taking on Democrat Janet Mills. Republican Paul LePage is outgoing and he is not well liked, much like Snyder but without the Flint controversy. Mills has, somehow, led every poll since the primary by eight points. So naturally I'll just say Mills wins by eight points. This will be the sixth race to turn blue.
Iowa: Like I said, I'd go back to the Midwest. Iowa is ANOTHER Midwest Gubernatorial race that is going to be one that comes down to the wire. This one is a bit of a surprise, but it may also signal the distrust/frustration towards the current administration. After Terry Branstad left to be part of the administration, Kim Reynolds was appointed to be governor after this. However, she faces a tough re-election campaign against Democrat and businessman Fred Hubbell. This state also faces three very important House races that could very well play a role into the Governor race here. For Hubbell, he'll have to connect with those in the Quad Cities area as well as Dubuque as he already has a good following from the primary in the central Des Moines metro area. For Reynolds, she needs turnout in rural Iowa to be high as well as good turnout for her in the Clinton/Davenport as well as Dubuque area. Polls haven't been wide and conducive like other Midwestern states. However, with the way it could go, don't be surprised if this race ends like others.
Result: This will likely will be too close to call for a while given the nature of the state and the race itself. I would not be surprised by midnight central if this race is finally decided, but I think if Des Moines heavily turns out for Hubbell, he'll win the race. Don't be surprised if it goes to a recount and it is decided by less than 20,000 votes. Yes, again I think this race goes to a Democrat.
Kansas: This might be one of the biggest switches if the Democrat wins in Kansas. The biggest wild card to this is going to be Independent Greg Orman. He gave Pat Roberts a run in the 2014 Senate race before losing to him. However, he's entered in this race and can play a spoiler either to Kris Kobach, the Republican, or Laura Kelly, the Democrat. It's still a dead heat in the polls. It always has been since the primaries. Kobach is a very controversial figure, but is a Trump loyalist in a state that is very pro-Trump. However, he may be too much of a firebrand and too much like Sam Brownback, who was very disliked by the time he resigned. Enter the opportunity with Kelly and the Democrats. Kelly doesn't have any of those major red flags, but she is a Democrat in a very Republican state so this will have always been an uphill battle from the start. If the Democrats can pull this race off, then they deserve a massive pat on the back. And it might be one that the Republicans are then kicking themselves over for a long, long time. The state also features two to three House races that could be pivotal to this Governor's race as well. For Kelly, she needs turnout in KC, Wichita, Lawrence and Manhattan (either typically Democratic or very strong education bases.) For Kobach, he's got to hope for strong turnout in west Kansas, northern Kansas and southern as well as getting a decent set of support in the cities listed above. The wild card is Orman, who can influence and will influence this race. He's been polling in the low double digits, but that's a significant amount in a race that both sides have cried foul against him for participating in.
Result: Like I said above, this will be a dream night for the experts. This is another race that should be noted too close to call for a majority of the night. If the polling is correct in suggesting this is a tie to one point lead either way, this will go to recount territory very much so. I would not be surprised if in the end, it is a 5-10 thousand vote margin, if not less. My inclination at this point is to go with Kobach, but I would not be surprised if Kelly wins. How much of a percentage Orman gets is going to make the difference and the location he gets that percentage.
Oklahoma: This is becoming more to Kevin Stitt, the Republican but don't count out Drew Edmundson just yet. This race is only leaning Republican, meaning it could switch if Stitt states anything controversial in the last couple of weeks. I would probably give Stitt the edge at this point, winning by around 5 points. It'll be a bit closer than most think but it's one that the GOP will relish, as it could be worse for them.
South Dakota: So this is probably the most surprising of those that are too close to call. Kristi Noem is the Republican and a former Representative for the state in DC. Billie Sutton is a state senator and the best hope for the Democrats. He is more of a moderate than a liberal, but it has been apparently largely effective in maintaining a close race since fall started. He has the support of Sioux Falls, but he needs a lot more support than just that. He'll need other support to win this election. He's done well to keep it close. How he closes this race out is up for debate. If Noem wins, it might be labeled a great escape for the Republicans.
Result: If this race really is this close, you can just throw it in with so many other races bound to be too close to call by 10 pm central. I think Noem wins this, but with it about 10 days prior to Election day, anything can happen. If Sutton wins, boy oh boy the night that Republicans will rue (as it means then likely Kansas goes Democratic too.)
Nevada: The next to last race (there's a lot) is Nevada. There's a Senate race here that will almost assuredly affect this race too. Adam Laxalt is the Republican, and Steve Sisolak the Democrat. However, this state likes to vote either none of the above or a libertarian/Independent (See: Ross Perot, Ralph Nader, and really anyone in 2016.) The key here is pretty blatantly simple, how big is the Latino turnout in Las Vegas, Reno and other Democrat strongholds? This state went to Hillary Clinton narrowly in 2016, and the Democrat won the Senate seat here as well, mainly due to the Latino/Hispanic turnout. Can Nevada's Governor race be turned blue because of that? It's entirely possible but I believe a lot of this race relies on what happens between Dean Heller and Jackie Rosen in the Senate race.
Result: It all largely depends on the Senate race, as they should mirror each other. Heller is a very, very embattled target for the Democrats to get a seat. Laxalt is different from him, but if Rosen wins, Laxalt may, depending how you see him, succumb to that similar fate as Heller. If Heller survives this race as the winner, then Laxalt wins. For now, I'll give this to Sisolak, but only because Rosen wins the Senate race.
Alaska: Finally we reach the end of this, and by the time Alaska closes we should have a good picture of the night for Republicans (note: It'll either be the Greatest Escape ever or a terrible night for Governors everywhere seemingly.) HOWEVER, their night still isn't over as Alaska is still here! Note, this race three weeks ago would not be added on. That was before a bombshell announcement. Governor Bill Walker suspended his campaign and threw his support behind the Democrat, former US Senator Mark Begich. Now the Democrat takes on Republican Mike Dunleavy. This has been a Republican leaning state since about forever (or at least since the turn of the millennium.) So that should give Dunleavy an advantage. Begich was a Senator, but he was a one term Senator. However, he is still popular in Anchorage, and western Alaska. Will that be enough to push him over the top? We'll see, as the Governor's races will be a long, long night.
Result: I see Dunleavy taking this by around four percentage points. However, Walker's influence can still very largely shape this race.
New Mexico: Editor's note, I had forgotten this was a switch when I initially posted about this. I believe that the Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham will take this race pretty handily over the Republican Steve Pearce. With all that said, keep an eye a bit on a couple of congressional districts in this state as they could very well be competitive and the Democrats want to flip the 2nd district which is a toss up.
With this, remember when I started it was 33, 16 and 1. I think the Democrats flip 9 races and we end up at 25-25 as the Republicans gain Alaska.
Friday, September 21, 2018
Northwestern Wildcats Football
On September 15, the Northwestern Wildcats played Akron. After being up 21-3, they let the lead go away and lost 39-34 in the end. Aside from letting you know the lead given up, the other significance is that my brother and I attended this game in Evanston on this night. Below is the review of how I think Northwestern handles the game-day atmosphere, the sights in and around Ryan Field and the stadium itself.
First off, you'll likely spend some time in Chicago which just about everyone in the known universe does. If you would rather deal with the excruciating traffic and drive downtown then bless you. Otherwise, take the trains/buses and it will only cost you 10 dollars through the day. For myself, taking the Blue Line to the Red Line to the Purple Line was most effective to get to the stadium, but we took Red to Brown to Purple. It was fine either way. Try to be selective in when and where you want to go, as it can get crowded very, very quick. This goes for after the game as well. Everything happens in Chicago and the trains were packed after the game downtown due to other events but that was just fine.
Now to the atmosphere of the area around the stadium. Essentially Northwestern does as good a job as possible to get people to tailgate and buy stuff around the stadium as possible. There is a gigantic tailgate lot for people to go there and have fun. There are a few merchandise areas outside the stadium to sight see and find merchandise you might like. There are also some haulers in the direct stadium lot to buy merchandise as well. I would suspect the prices are similar to most colleges and their pricing in terms of hats, sweaters and shirts, among other things. How about the stadium?
To be openly honest, I would suspect if you are a visiting fan you would rate Ryan Field towards the bottom of the Power 5 conference stadiums. The reason is it is old, dilapidated and for Northwestern, too big. The stadium has way too small of bathroom areas, and even has portable toilets underneath some of the seats. While the stadium having seat cushions for seats is not new (most colleges do this) the next stadium project would be suited with putting seats for everyone rather than bleachers. Also, the concessions are all over the place. That is due to the size/accessibility of the stadium. Typically this wouldn't be an issue, but it creates for the concourses to be very inaccessible to get around. This would be another thing they need to focus on in the renovation process. There is talk about a full-scale renovation to make the stadium completely different and that is something that must happen in my regard. I honestly would rate this stadium towards the bottom of the Power 5 schools and likely would be behind a lot of the non-BCS schools stadiums. Hopefully Northwestern figures this out and they can get the donations necessary to renovate Ryan Field as it desperately needs it.
All in all, I would rate the Northwestern experience as average. The stadium is a large portion of this review that takes it from great to average When Northwestern improves the stadium, it'll improve a lot drastically.
Now I pose a question to you readers. Since I have visited Camp Randall Stadium and Ryan Field, in addition to UW-Whitewater and UW-Oshkosh stadiums, what college stadium should I visit for the future? It can be any division, any team.
First off, you'll likely spend some time in Chicago which just about everyone in the known universe does. If you would rather deal with the excruciating traffic and drive downtown then bless you. Otherwise, take the trains/buses and it will only cost you 10 dollars through the day. For myself, taking the Blue Line to the Red Line to the Purple Line was most effective to get to the stadium, but we took Red to Brown to Purple. It was fine either way. Try to be selective in when and where you want to go, as it can get crowded very, very quick. This goes for after the game as well. Everything happens in Chicago and the trains were packed after the game downtown due to other events but that was just fine.
Now to the atmosphere of the area around the stadium. Essentially Northwestern does as good a job as possible to get people to tailgate and buy stuff around the stadium as possible. There is a gigantic tailgate lot for people to go there and have fun. There are a few merchandise areas outside the stadium to sight see and find merchandise you might like. There are also some haulers in the direct stadium lot to buy merchandise as well. I would suspect the prices are similar to most colleges and their pricing in terms of hats, sweaters and shirts, among other things. How about the stadium?
To be openly honest, I would suspect if you are a visiting fan you would rate Ryan Field towards the bottom of the Power 5 conference stadiums. The reason is it is old, dilapidated and for Northwestern, too big. The stadium has way too small of bathroom areas, and even has portable toilets underneath some of the seats. While the stadium having seat cushions for seats is not new (most colleges do this) the next stadium project would be suited with putting seats for everyone rather than bleachers. Also, the concessions are all over the place. That is due to the size/accessibility of the stadium. Typically this wouldn't be an issue, but it creates for the concourses to be very inaccessible to get around. This would be another thing they need to focus on in the renovation process. There is talk about a full-scale renovation to make the stadium completely different and that is something that must happen in my regard. I honestly would rate this stadium towards the bottom of the Power 5 schools and likely would be behind a lot of the non-BCS schools stadiums. Hopefully Northwestern figures this out and they can get the donations necessary to renovate Ryan Field as it desperately needs it.
All in all, I would rate the Northwestern experience as average. The stadium is a large portion of this review that takes it from great to average When Northwestern improves the stadium, it'll improve a lot drastically.
Now I pose a question to you readers. Since I have visited Camp Randall Stadium and Ryan Field, in addition to UW-Whitewater and UW-Oshkosh stadiums, what college stadium should I visit for the future? It can be any division, any team.
Wednesday, September 5, 2018
SNES Game Review: Bill Walsh College Football
There was a time in the 90's when EA Sports didn't look much into the college football atmosphere with video games. You could say that ultimately changed when they went to the PlayStation console, but they did make a couple of college on the SNES console. The first one of those was Bill Walsh College Football. It was put in part to Bill Walsh's insight but really a lot deal with the makings of EA and Visual Concepts (this was before EA went with a much better graphics team at Tiburon.) They also made College Football 97, but I haven't played that so I can't rate it. However I have played and beat this game so let's review Bill Walsh College Football.
Pros:
Pros:
- Graphically sound: There won't be many glitches in the graphics. It is smooth in this regard and will be smooth with any EA/Visual Concepts game.
- A true playoff format?: Okay so here's why this worked. EA at the time didn't have the NCAA license. So essentially they could mess around with the format how they wanted. There'll be a minus to this later on in terms of the licensing. HOWEVER, this game gave a true playoff format. It's 12 teams, three rounds (round one, quarters and semis) before the national championship. It is separated by East/West. You win, you advance, lose and go home like any other playoff. Maybe the BCS one day will be smart.
- The passing game: Okay, disclaimer; this will be a minus as well later on but for a different reason. But all-in-all, the passing game is actually straight forward. You throw to a target using whatever button on the pad. No fancy hot routes, pre-snap nonsense of scanning what the defensive lineman on the right side is doing with his toes or anything.
Cons:
- The passing game everywhere else: Okay like I said it would be a minus. So as much as it is easy to just throw, the rest of it is.. rough to say the least. In the window, it doesn't show much, if any, if a defender is near the WR. If the ball is tipped or batted, there is a quagmire of people batting the ball for essential funsies. The way to throw an interception is way too easy (even if a player isn't close to the ball.) The WR's stop or keep running past the target half the time without seemingly any awareness of where the ball is.
- The running game: This is a complete joke. Good luck getting any run game assembled that doesn't include your QB. If you do, you should be anointed some special title because it is completely next to impossible to run with a RB in this game. The entire defense is on you in 5 seconds or less all the time.
- The licensing: Okay like I said this would be a minus. As much as I love the playoff format, but holy cow the rest makes it funny sort of. So the teams, 24 in total, are not really named by the college/university. Some are, more or less out of oddity. Some are adequately named, like Kansas, Colorado and Washington. Some are listed after the city they are in. For instance, Florida State is Tallahassee, N.C. State is Raleigh, and Boston College is Boston. So some of those diehards will be ruffled up, but personally I found it a bit funny. I don't deduce points at all for it. The problem more was with the NCAA not licensing the product (which EA could have paid players then.) than EA getting the wacky names.
- The fluidity of the game: This was a major flaw to me. Other than the quagmires of the players whenever a ball was tipped, or on a run play, the game to me wasn't very fluid. Unlike say Tecmo, there isn't like 7-10 seconds running off of a play. This is fine, but the cut scenes take up 5-10 seconds after every play just to see an animated coach or fan or cheerleader for whatever reason. Every game, even on 5 minute mode, typically takes upwards to 45 minutes to complete. This isn't necessarily bad and is about average for EA games of the future, but it is something to warrant given the flaws of the game.
Neutral:
- Did it start the journey of the college football dynasty?: This is a hard question to answer, unlike Final Fantasy Mystic Quest. That game was highly credited with starting RPG's in America and with the birth of great soundtracks in RPG's. However with Bill Walsh, it is very hard to tell if this really helped start the birth of college football in America for video games. The reasons why are this: There wasn't another game made for NCAA football until 96/97 on the SNES, so roughly four years. Second, College Football 97 was for all purposes on rating systems from everyone a terrible game. Third, the NCAA games didn't kickstart in popularity until Gamebreaker on the PlayStation anyway. Then it became who can one-up each other between Sony and EA (spoiler: EA won out in the end anyway until they left the scene in 2014.) So it is very difficult to say if this game kicked off college football games being popular.
All in all, you see some of the good and bad of this game. Like I said a couple posts ago, there were 721 games made for SNES. At best I would rate this around 400th. I would rank it maybe 11th on the football game scale at best for the SNES. It's below average, it has a lot of flaws. However I do feel if this were made with Tiburon, it would have been far better than Visual Concepts gave. If I gave a grade on this, I would say 5/10. The flaws are very detrimental minus the licensing portion.
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