I don't try to get too political out there in the world of everything, however I feel this is something I can do without being a biased hack (see... well any cable news network out there) and summarizing the races that I think will be big watches in the nation on Election Night. This'll be a three-part series, first with the gubernatorial elections across the country, then the states with the most key of house races, and then the Senate races. With the gubernatorial and Senate races, I'll go through what the experts call the battleground states or ones that in my opinion could flip. Now I am nowhere near the greatness that is a Steve Kornacki or John King or even Nate Silver for that matter. I more or less base it on the polling that I have seen over the course of the summer and fall and base it kind of off of that. With that, entering election night, the governors by party are this: 33 Republicans, 16 Democrats and 1 Independent (Alaska.) That one Independent has withdrawn by the way, lending his support to the Democrat in that state. So what states are to watch for on Election Night?
Florida: This one not only was the biggest no-brainer, it's also the most closely watched Governor's race in the entire country in a country that will be absolutely full of them. It's Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum vs. former US Representative Ron DeSantis. To say this contest has been anything but scathing is honestly putting this race in nice terms. It's been absolutely brutal bashing between the two. DeSantis was probably the GOP's nomination on this and he is a Trump loyalist in a state that voted for him two years ago. However, Gillum was not only a surprise, he wasn't even the Democrats first choice in the state before he scored the upset in the Primary. However, he has shouldered a lot of people on his back and won the Democrats full support. The debates have been well... not very kind to either to be nice again. In an almost scorched Earth set of debates, it now comes down to who has the best ground game. Gillum is heavily relying on great turnout of minorities, especially in Broward, Brevard, Miami-Dade, and Orange counties as well as the county Tallahassee encompasses while also drawing enough in the Tampa/St. Pete area. DeSantis is hoping for Charlie Crist type levels on the Democratic side four years ago to spring him into the Governor's seat (also, ironically, in Tallahassee.) This race will literally be too close to call all night probably, leading both parties to wonder when to go out for the late night food. The key to this is can Gillum get the turnout in the counties above, unlike Crist four years ago and Clinton two years ago? It's very possible. And yes this race has seen it's share of controversy, including the issue of immigration and sadly race. Fair or not, it's something that DeSantis has had to overcome in this stretch. And this hasn't even mentioned how this race may be impacted by the Senate race on the top of the ticket between Rick Scott and Bill Nelson. Don't be surprised if either candidate who wins sees the Senator in the same party win, as both races are dastardly close.
Result: To me, don't be surprised if on Election Night this race isn't called. As brutal as this race has been, it's all about the turnout. I think the ground game for Gillum gets it done narrowly, by maybe 50,000 votes or so. This could be a recount scenario in the works. However, I think the Democrats flip this seat to them when it is all said and done.
Wisconsin: For my home staters, you won't need to read too far into this to see how I think Wisconsin goes. It's probably the second most watched race, unless you think Ohio is. Either way, Wisconsin is second or third because of the way this race has shaped up. You have two-term incumbent and Republican Scott Walker vs. State Superintendent and Democrat Tony Evers. Walker has, for seemingly all purposes, been embattled since 2012 in his seat. He managed to beat Mary Burke in 2014 due to depressed turnout in major Wisconsin Democrat strongholds. It's also the sight of likely the dagger in Hillary Clinton's Presidential hopes as she lost Wisconsin by just north of 30,000 votes in 2016. Trump's popularity in the state has waned a lot since that win (not like it was high to begin with, he won the state with a plurality rather than majority.) He also hasn't been campaigning as hard for Walker, probably due to the 2016 duel they had in the election primary cycle. There is a Senate race here, but that is more or less not in question. There's only one house race theoretically up for grabs but the likeliness that affects this race is small, and the more open question would be how does this race affect the House race? If you are from Wisconsin, you know what to look for. If you are reading this and don't know where to look on Election Night for this, here is where. For the Republicans, they have to hope for good, strong turnout in the Fox Valley, which stretches essentially from Green Bay southward to just south of Fond Du Lac. They also have to get strong turnout from Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington counties. The central part of the state should go for them, so this should be not as prioritized on their behalf but they should still look to get votes. How does Evers win though? Strong turnout in Madison/Dane Co., Milwaukee County, Racine and Kenosha Counties as well as places where education is important. He's going to win Madison and Milwaukee going away and it won't be close. Can he get Rock/Walworth counties close with the education there? Can he narrow the gap in both Brown and Outagamie counties? Can he do better than Burke in Eau Claire and La Crosse? These are all crucial to the hope for the Democrats to flip this seat that they even thought wouldn't happen at the start of the year. Remember this, Governor Walker has been embattled twice, once in 2012 with a recall and 2014 and won both of those because the Democrats fielded below average candidates. However, it may be time he met someone who could be a rising star for the Democrats in Wisconsin.
Result: Expect this to be too close to call most of the night, as the votes from Dane and Milwaukee Counties are typically slower than those in Waukesha and others in counting. However, by maybe 1.5 percentage points, I believe that Tony Evers flips Wisconsin blue.
Georgia: Who on Earth would have thought this state would be looked at on Election Night? That changed when Brian Kemp won the GOP run-off in this state and Stacey Abrams won the Democratic primary. This race has seen polls not much more than 2 points to either side. It's a state that demographically is starting to change, much like Colorado and Virginia did in the last 5-10 years. It's a state that Abrams is hoping that demographically changing can go her way. She's hoping to employ a bit of the same playbook as Evers, in terms of racking up the votes where she is knowing to be successful and narrow the gap in places that Kemp should win. It's also a strong and tall task to beat Kemp, and one that if she did do so would change this state's politics likely forever. If Abrams wins, she will have done it in major cities and college cities like Athens and obviously Atlanta and parts of its metro area. I would look at 2016 as an example, as Hillary Clinton had this too close to call parts of the night, but ultimately Trump won this state as well (notice a trend here?) Kemp needs to ride high with the numbers where he is going to do typically well in, especially the north and south central parts of the state.
Result: Don't be surprised if this is too close to call a majority of the night. Turnout will be key for Abrams. However, I think the dream ends by about 3 percentage points and Kemp keeps this state in the GOP column.
Ohio: Yep, you knew this state would be on there. Oddly enough, what happens at the top won't necessarily reflect the governor's race one would suspect. That's because Sherrod Brown is going to win his Senate seat by double digits and this race will be tighter. It is Mike DeWine vs. Richard Cordray. DeWine comes as a former senator for the state, while Cordray is a former Obama appointee to the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau. Cordray beat Dennis Kucinich in the Democratic primary and it set this showdown up. This was a state that went to Obama twice, so that could portend to Cordray. It's also a state that went to Trump, again noticing a trend? The central part of the state, minus Franklin County, should be high numbers for the DeWine campaign. Athens County is typically a liberal county and so is Franklin County so that should go well for Cordray. Let's be honest though, this race will be won in two areas, southwest Ohio and northeast Ohio. Hamilton County is Cincinnati and that could go well for Cordray if it goes for him. Also, the northern/northeast section from Toledo through Cuyahoga County in Cleveland will be huge to Cordray. If he gets the turnout and the Republicans don't, another Governors seat switches blue this year. If DeWine can get strong turnout, especially in the suburbs of Cincy, Cleveland and Toledo as well as Columbus then he has a big chance in a big state for the Republicans.
Result: Don't be surprised if every new organization is going absolutely bat crap crazy by 10pm central, as at least four races (possibly up to 6-7) could be too close to call for a while. I would suspect this is the same way. However, I think Cordray gets the support that Clinton didn't in Cleveland, Columbus and some outlying areas as well. He wins by 3.5 percentage points and another red governor's race turns blue.
Illinois: This'll be short and sweet, as I am tagging the Midwest. This seat will change, but it's not going to be a tossup. Republican Bruce Rauner is the most vulnerable of any incumbent. Democrat J.B. Pritzker is going to rout this race and a fourth seat turns blue.
Michigan: Another race at this point that a Midwest seat could change color. While Democrat Gretchen Whitmer has not strayed from the lead since the calendar year flipped, she also hasn't trailed or tied in any poll since the start of the year either. That doesn't bode well for Republican Bill Schuette either as he looks to close this race within the last couple of weeks. He's only been as close as five points in polls, other than a one point poll in June. It doesn't help that outgoing Governor Rick Snyder is so disliked and a polarizing Republican. Essentially, another trend happening here as Michigan went for Trump in 2016, but a state that likely should go blue this go around. I'd suspect this goes by 8-9 percentage points. This is now the fifth race that I project from red to blue.
Maine: To take a break from the Midwest oh so shortly, as I'll be back to that shortly. Maine is the one Northeast state that will be competitive barring a miracle in Rhode Island. Maine has Republican Shawn Moody taking on Democrat Janet Mills. Republican Paul LePage is outgoing and he is not well liked, much like Snyder but without the Flint controversy. Mills has, somehow, led every poll since the primary by eight points. So naturally I'll just say Mills wins by eight points. This will be the sixth race to turn blue.
Iowa: Like I said, I'd go back to the Midwest. Iowa is ANOTHER Midwest Gubernatorial race that is going to be one that comes down to the wire. This one is a bit of a surprise, but it may also signal the distrust/frustration towards the current administration. After Terry Branstad left to be part of the administration, Kim Reynolds was appointed to be governor after this. However, she faces a tough re-election campaign against Democrat and businessman Fred Hubbell. This state also faces three very important House races that could very well play a role into the Governor race here. For Hubbell, he'll have to connect with those in the Quad Cities area as well as Dubuque as he already has a good following from the primary in the central Des Moines metro area. For Reynolds, she needs turnout in rural Iowa to be high as well as good turnout for her in the Clinton/Davenport as well as Dubuque area. Polls haven't been wide and conducive like other Midwestern states. However, with the way it could go, don't be surprised if this race ends like others.
Result: This will likely will be too close to call for a while given the nature of the state and the race itself. I would not be surprised by midnight central if this race is finally decided, but I think if Des Moines heavily turns out for Hubbell, he'll win the race. Don't be surprised if it goes to a recount and it is decided by less than 20,000 votes. Yes, again I think this race goes to a Democrat.
Kansas: This might be one of the biggest switches if the Democrat wins in Kansas. The biggest wild card to this is going to be Independent Greg Orman. He gave Pat Roberts a run in the 2014 Senate race before losing to him. However, he's entered in this race and can play a spoiler either to Kris Kobach, the Republican, or Laura Kelly, the Democrat. It's still a dead heat in the polls. It always has been since the primaries. Kobach is a very controversial figure, but is a Trump loyalist in a state that is very pro-Trump. However, he may be too much of a firebrand and too much like Sam Brownback, who was very disliked by the time he resigned. Enter the opportunity with Kelly and the Democrats. Kelly doesn't have any of those major red flags, but she is a Democrat in a very Republican state so this will have always been an uphill battle from the start. If the Democrats can pull this race off, then they deserve a massive pat on the back. And it might be one that the Republicans are then kicking themselves over for a long, long time. The state also features two to three House races that could be pivotal to this Governor's race as well. For Kelly, she needs turnout in KC, Wichita, Lawrence and Manhattan (either typically Democratic or very strong education bases.) For Kobach, he's got to hope for strong turnout in west Kansas, northern Kansas and southern as well as getting a decent set of support in the cities listed above. The wild card is Orman, who can influence and will influence this race. He's been polling in the low double digits, but that's a significant amount in a race that both sides have cried foul against him for participating in.
Result: Like I said above, this will be a dream night for the experts. This is another race that should be noted too close to call for a majority of the night. If the polling is correct in suggesting this is a tie to one point lead either way, this will go to recount territory very much so. I would not be surprised if in the end, it is a 5-10 thousand vote margin, if not less. My inclination at this point is to go with Kobach, but I would not be surprised if Kelly wins. How much of a percentage Orman gets is going to make the difference and the location he gets that percentage.
Oklahoma: This is becoming more to Kevin Stitt, the Republican but don't count out Drew Edmundson just yet. This race is only leaning Republican, meaning it could switch if Stitt states anything controversial in the last couple of weeks. I would probably give Stitt the edge at this point, winning by around 5 points. It'll be a bit closer than most think but it's one that the GOP will relish, as it could be worse for them.
South Dakota: So this is probably the most surprising of those that are too close to call. Kristi Noem is the Republican and a former Representative for the state in DC. Billie Sutton is a state senator and the best hope for the Democrats. He is more of a moderate than a liberal, but it has been apparently largely effective in maintaining a close race since fall started. He has the support of Sioux Falls, but he needs a lot more support than just that. He'll need other support to win this election. He's done well to keep it close. How he closes this race out is up for debate. If Noem wins, it might be labeled a great escape for the Republicans.
Result: If this race really is this close, you can just throw it in with so many other races bound to be too close to call by 10 pm central. I think Noem wins this, but with it about 10 days prior to Election day, anything can happen. If Sutton wins, boy oh boy the night that Republicans will rue (as it means then likely Kansas goes Democratic too.)
Nevada: The next to last race (there's a lot) is Nevada. There's a Senate race here that will almost assuredly affect this race too. Adam Laxalt is the Republican, and Steve Sisolak the Democrat. However, this state likes to vote either none of the above or a libertarian/Independent (See: Ross Perot, Ralph Nader, and really anyone in 2016.) The key here is pretty blatantly simple, how big is the Latino turnout in Las Vegas, Reno and other Democrat strongholds? This state went to Hillary Clinton narrowly in 2016, and the Democrat won the Senate seat here as well, mainly due to the Latino/Hispanic turnout. Can Nevada's Governor race be turned blue because of that? It's entirely possible but I believe a lot of this race relies on what happens between Dean Heller and Jackie Rosen in the Senate race.
Result: It all largely depends on the Senate race, as they should mirror each other. Heller is a very, very embattled target for the Democrats to get a seat. Laxalt is different from him, but if Rosen wins, Laxalt may, depending how you see him, succumb to that similar fate as Heller. If Heller survives this race as the winner, then Laxalt wins. For now, I'll give this to Sisolak, but only because Rosen wins the Senate race.
Alaska: Finally we reach the end of this, and by the time Alaska closes we should have a good picture of the night for Republicans (note: It'll either be the Greatest Escape ever or a terrible night for Governors everywhere seemingly.) HOWEVER, their night still isn't over as Alaska is still here! Note, this race three weeks ago would not be added on. That was before a bombshell announcement. Governor Bill Walker suspended his campaign and threw his support behind the Democrat, former US Senator Mark Begich. Now the Democrat takes on Republican Mike Dunleavy. This has been a Republican leaning state since about forever (or at least since the turn of the millennium.) So that should give Dunleavy an advantage. Begich was a Senator, but he was a one term Senator. However, he is still popular in Anchorage, and western Alaska. Will that be enough to push him over the top? We'll see, as the Governor's races will be a long, long night.
Result: I see Dunleavy taking this by around four percentage points. However, Walker's influence can still very largely shape this race.
New Mexico: Editor's note, I had forgotten this was a switch when I initially posted about this. I believe that the Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham will take this race pretty handily over the Republican Steve Pearce. With all that said, keep an eye a bit on a couple of congressional districts in this state as they could very well be competitive and the Democrats want to flip the 2nd district which is a toss up.
With this, remember when I started it was 33, 16 and 1. I think the Democrats flip 9 races and we end up at 25-25 as the Republicans gain Alaska.
