Election 2018: Senate Races

To conclude the Election 2018 triple-header is the Senate races.  To prelude this, the Senate will start at 51 Republicans, technically 47 Democrats and 2 Independents, but those Independents are technically labeled as Democrats as they caucus with them.  Also to prelude more, the Independents (Bernie Sanders and Angus King) are in no way in any in danger of losing their seats in Vermont and Maine.  There are a lot of seats that I will cover, regardless of if they are changing or not.  The GOP is more in favor of keeping their majority, as a lot of seats are being contended on their turf which is something they can't say come 2020 or 2022.  With that, here is what to look for in Tuesday's Senate elections.

Florida: Was there ever really a surprise when so many House races are up for grabs here and the state is also in a Governor's race that is also very heated in literal and figurative senses that this would also be front and center in a very hotly contested Senate race?  Bill Nelson is trying to keep this seat for the Democrats against Rick Scott, current Republican governor of the state.  This race will likely very much mirror the Governor's race in this state.  To put it nicely, this race has been brutal, but without the race factor like the Governor's race.  Both have been chided for different issues, but both have also been credited by their own people for doing well to keep with the bases.  This will be a race that goes long, long into the night.  I would not be surprised if by early morning, this race is not called. 
Result: I feel this all depends on the Governor's race and the contested House races as well.  Typically I don't align either with a Senate race, but with a state as polarized in politics as Florida is, and as much as the state is divided, this could come down to those factors.  I wouldn't be surprised as well if automatic recounts happen in this race as well.  I feel Nelson holds this seat by the skin of his teeth, somewhere around 20,000 votes after a recount is automated.

Missouri: If Florida is the one to watch, Missouri may be the second to watch here.  Republican Josh Hawley is looking to finally take down Democrat Claire McAskill.  The Democrat beat out Jim Talent in 2006 due to, ironically, a blue wave that swept the country and held onto the seat in 2012 due to Todd Akin being a twit.  Hawley hasn't made a controversial, hot-button remark in recent weeks which helps him in this race.  McAskill has been someone who is a virtue of luck in two straight elections.  However, it is possible that McAskill voting no to Judge Kavanaugh costs her this seat (more on that in North Dakota.)  However, it doesn't appear this may be as much of a factor as different outliers do in this state.  It has progressively gone more red in the last decade, to where it wasn't even really too close to call in 2016 and rather it was to Trump easily while the Senate was more too close to call most of the night.  This will be another race that is too close to call one would suspect.
Result: This is almost assuredly going to automatic recall with the way it has been nearly deadlocked all the way through.  Unless one candidate in the last couple of days massively screws up and says something that makes people just drop off the map, this will be a tale of four areas: St. Louis, Columbia, Kansas City, and then the rest of the state.  Democrat turnout needs to be massively high in the first three areas, and for the Republicans, it needs to be high everywhere else to win.  If I had to flip a coin, I would say Hawley wins this, but by less than 10,000 votes and that might be a generous number.

Arizona: With the map that is playing out for the election, the Democrats will have to hope to switch four seats and Arizona is one of those.  Democrat Kyrsten Sinema is a rising political star in this state and she takes on Republican Martha McSally.  When the GOP primary was going on, Sinema was cruising to the lead as well as having a ground game that is second-to-none that continues today.  This would be a big blow to the GOP if they lose it, who have held this seat for a long, long time.  McSally emerged as the victor in that absolutely brutal primary.  She has come back to make this a very competitive race.  Some of the other factors come to play here, but the overarching theme will be how does the Latino/Hispanic vote come forward here for the Democrats or the Republicans.  It will come down to that and how strong the turnout is in the heavily Democrat and heavily Republican areas. 
Result: I think this seat will be too close to call as well all night.  I also think with as gruesome and brutal this race has been in terms of character slandering, it brings out a lot of the party's voters and some voters that may switch parties.  I think after this being too close to call all night that Sinema outlasts McSally by around 15,000 votes this time in round to flip this seat to Blue.

Nevada: This has been the seat the Democrats have frothed at the mouth since 2017.  They have wanted to take out Dean Heller since they failed to in 2012.  This time though, they have a chance with Jacky Rosen, who is also a rising star like Sinema.  However, Heller has held tough in this election campaign despite the heavy pressure.  He might be the Republican version of McAskill, where he possesses the massive luck material to get through difficult challenges in any election battle.  However, as noted above, I have McAskill falling to Hawley in Missouri.  Can Heller get the Republican turnout in a year that the Democrats really want to flip this?
Result: Much like McAskill, this likely is the end of the line regardless for Heller.  He likely wouldn't survive in 2024 in a Presidential year.  He also may run out of luck come Tuesday night anyway.  The playbook for Rosen should be one that Catherine Cortez-Masto used in 2016 in a narrow win in the Senate.  However, in a possible Democrat year, this likely will be less than 10,000 votes and that's also likely being generous. 

North Dakota: To put it short and easy, Heidi Heitkamp is not going to keep this seat to the Democrats unless there is a massive controversy for Republican Kevin Cramer.  Heitkamp will be a one-term Senator.  The Republicans will switch this to their column.

Indiana: Joe Donnelly got by in 2012 thanks to a GOP primary that gave Richard Mourdock a shot at him rather than Richard Luger.  The Democrat got Mike Braun this time in round and either way, whoever it would have been, it would be a struggle bus to say the least.  Donnelly will need huge turnout in Democrat heavy areas and Braun will need to probably pull away some moderate Democrats from the Donnelly crowd to win this election.  It will be a race that is too close to call most of the night anyway.
Result: If Gary, Indy and places like Fort Wayne and South Bend go for the Democrat in healthy margins, then Braun needs to get heavy turnout in rural areas.  I think Donnelly gets a couple percentage points of a win in the end and escapes this election the winner.

Montana: Jon Tester faces another good haired fellow, Republican Matt Rosendale.  The difference here may be whether voters still hold the no vote of Judge Kavanaugh over the head of Tester or not.  He's been a popular senator since his election in 2006, but he could meet a solid matchup in Rosendale.  Rosendale is popular with the Trump administration, and he could be favorable in the state which heavily went for him two years ago.  However, the state went pretty well for the Republican Mitt Romney in 2012 and Tester won then too.  The big cities and populous counties will need to come in for Tester in healthy numbers.  If he does, he likely holds the seat.  If not, Rosendale can score the upset here.
Result: I believe, like others, Tester escapes this narrowly.  A lot of these too close to call elections will be very tight all night.  This likely will not be called on the night of Election night and may go until sometime on Wednesday before a true winner is declared.  I may not stretch it to recall territory, but it will be one that will be within 10,000 votes (and the only reason I don't say recall is Montana is a much less populous state than others listed above.)

Tennessee: This race between Republican Marsha Blackburn and Democrat and former governor Phil Bredesen has attracted a lot of attention both politically and in the music world with Bredesen getting endorsed by Taylor Swift.  This race is probably a shot in the arm for Democrats who otherwise wouldn't be in this race if not for the popular Bredesen.  He's more of a moderate Democrat than a liberal or ultra-liberal.  Blackburn has been using her support for Trump as a calling card in a state that is Trump-friendly.  Will that be the difference?  We'll see.  Big city turnout for Bredesen will be key to him keeping it close.  And he'll have to hope for some rural support on him as well, especially more in the Eastern part of the state.  If he gets that, it's more favorable for Bredesen to pull the upset and pick up a seat for the Democrats.
Result: While Bredesen gets support in cities like Nashville and Memphis, he doesn't get it elsewhere most likely due to the Republican nature of the state.  Bredesen could get support in the Memphis and Nashville suburbs but it has to work deeper in the state than that.  I think Blackburn wins by 4-6 percentage points and this seat is one that the Republicans will be happy to keep.

Texas: This really shouldn't be a contest due to the nature politically of the state and the fact that Ted Cruz had been very much a popular figure here for a while.  However, Beto O'Rourke has made this a race.  He's likely not to win the state, but he has started to change the face of the Democrats in this state in a way that could see them win later on down the road in different elections.  However, the best way this stays close is huge turnout for O'Rourke in college cities in west/southwest Texas as well as Corpus Christi in addition to heavy turnout in Dallas/Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Houston for him to give him a chance.  Cruz will likely take this state, but O'Rourke has built something the Democrats can take forward at least.
Result: Expect Cruz to win anywhere from 5-7 percentage points.  It'll be closer than usual elections and much closer than the Governor's race in this state. 

Other states to watch just for watching sake: Virginia to see how much Tim Kaine wins by, Ohio and Wisconsin as those Senate margins will be much more than the Gubernatorial races, and the special election in Mississippi to see how that goes between all the candidates.