This will be part two of three. The finale of this comes in during the weekend as well. This will be a breakdown of states that races can swing the House in one way or another. Will the Democrats be able to pick up the 23 seats needed to take back the House? With that, here are the states that will prove pivotal for the Democrats to take back the House, or the Republicans holding it. At the end, I'll give my rough estimate of how I think the final tally will be.
California: This is no surprise. This has been one of the top Democrat targets all season, dating back to the election season of 2017. The favor for the Democrats? 12 districts in play and only two features an incumbent Democrat (the 24th and 7th, both of which they are likely to win) and ten they could flip Democrat if the cards play right. It's more likely of those ten, they take five which is a significant amount regardless. The House could still be up in the air by California, so keep an eye to see how well the Democrats are holding or how well the Republicans are holding.
Florida: No surprise here, as the state this election season is getting very, very serious down the stretch. There's a senate race that is closely watched, as well as a Governor's race in Florida. So how do you also equate the House? How about nine of the districts up for grabs as well? Yes, Florida is going to be the most adventurous of the states on this night. The Dems are hoping to keep the two they have, plus flip at least three of the remaining seven. Those would be the 15th, 26th and 27th. Those three are very much up for grabs late in the campaign.
Pennsylvania: Another state that is huge for the Democrats. However, this one is due to redistricting and it benefits the Democrats more so going forward. There are nine seats up for grabs. While they'll lose one (The 14th) they may be alright with that if they can hold their other seat and sweep taking the other seven seats. It'll likely not happen, but they are favored in four of those seats to take over already.
New Jersey: The Democrats are looking to hold one of the competitive districts in this state while also looking to flip four from red to blue. This is a lot of defense coming from the GOP early in these, a trend you'll see a lot. The Democrats are favored to win three of those four, with the 3rd district squarely in toss up territory.
Iowa: This will be a key-bearer test for the Democrats to see what inroads they have made since the disastrous 2016 campaign. They are competitive in all four districts. However, they are slated to hold onto the one they have plus pick up two. The biggest test is can they somehow unseat Steve King in IA-4? If so, that'll send a shocking wave to a lot of Republicans this campaign.
Kansas: Another state that could be a bellweather for the Democrats. From 2016, where they didn't come within 10 points of any race, to this moment where they can pick up two seats in this state speaks volumes for their House bid and how much the Republicans are lacking a clear voice in their party at the current outstanding moment.
New York: New York has seven competitive districts, and really it could be just three to look at on Tuesday night. Those are the 19th, 22nd and really pick a choice between the 1st, 11th and 27th. The Democrats could flip three, though two may be more satisfactory in this election cycle. It's also one that they wouldn't mind having in their back pockets.
Virginia: Virginia has at least one seat going from GOP to Democrat, and three more could follow as they are in toss-up territory. Barbara Comstock was always very vulnerable in the 10th district and Jennifer Wexton may finally put the nail in the coffin for her. Also to look for: The 2nd, 5th and 7th districts. The Dems want two of those three in their column, and they have them squarely in toss-up range.
Minnesota: Minnesota has eight districts, five of which are being looked at on Election Night. Democrats are playing defense in the 8th district, and are likely to lose this seat. However, they want desperately to hold the 1st and 7th districts while taking the 2nd and 3rd districts. It could be a wash in this state for Democrats on Election Night if they lose the 1st and 7th. Or if they kept those two and took the others, a great escape perhaps?
Honorable Mentions to look at: Ohio, Texas, Washington, Colorado, Arizona, Alaska, Montana and Utah.
With that, as I eluded to at the top of the column, the Democrats need to flip 23 seats to take the house. With projections already, they are at a net gain of 13 and putting them at 203, meaning they need to hold their five currently in toss-up range and take 10 from the toss-up range to get a majority in the house. There have been wild numbers floating around as to the number they take back in the House. However, I'll guess with the races in toss-up territory that are red seats already (31) and I believe based on the polling that the Democrats could take 16 of those. Therefore, I suspect the end result will be 224-211 for the Democrats in this House election.
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